Figure 1 shows the results of not taking daily CzarChart signals unless they are at or in excess of +/- 3. The first row of each futures contract shows simple majority results (+/- 1) and the second features the new qualifier (+/- 3). As you can see, you dramatically bump up your crucial return-on-account figure in most of the markets. The percent profitability column increases and so does the amount per trade. It would certainly be valid to act only on the new threshold if such improved results are your sole consideration.
Figure 1: Nine Futures Markets
The arguable point, of course, is that whenever you significantly decrease your sample size, your results become less robust and more suspect. True, when you add all the second column trials together, you're in a generally acceptably regarded range of 1000+ trials, but that's still significantly less than the original multi-thousand pool. This inevitably gives you more volatile deviations from the mean.
It's a constant balancing act for system traders. I have to say, the 8 components produce some pretty impressive results in general. The particular path you take with them largely depends on your own temperament.
Daily CzarChart for June 22
The bottom row provides the direction of the bias at the open: long (L) or short (S). When it's neutral, it will read zero (0). Click here for a more in-depth explanation of the rules.
Dynamic Monthly Biases for June 22
The monthly indicator has flipped to the bullish side, therefore switch from short to long in the mini S&Ps and Russell. The daily Nasdaq contradicts the signal, so hold shorts in that market.
The bottom two rows determine the signal. Dynamic Day One trumps everythingâ€"you always follow it. When it's neutral, the Monthly Perpetual provides the direction. Click here for a more in-depth explanation of the rules.
DISCLAIMER: It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented on in this column will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on this column are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The author, Tiger Shark Publishing LLC, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.
Art Collins will be speaking at the Chicago Trader's Expo on Saturday, July 16, from 8:00 to 9:30 a.m. The presentation is Identifying, Combining and Profiting from Daily Biases in the Futures Markets. E-mail Art at artcollins@ameritech.net.