Swiss Consumer Price Index (NOV) (06:45 GMT; 01:45 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: 0.0% 0.6%
Previous: 0.3% 0.3%
Outlook: Swiss inflation is expected to flat-line over the month of November but pick up from two-and-a-half year lows on an annual basis. Predictions that a slower pace of price growth will persist in November and the months ahead are founded in the steady deterioration of growth trends in recent months. Recently, the manufacturing sector has reported that activity levels are starting falter. More importantly, firms may find guidance in the KOFâ,"s leading growth index, used to forecast economic expansion in the coming six months. The indicator has fallen for five straight months through November. Back by expectations of slowing growth in Germany at the turn of the year and already stalling US growth, businesses may look to front run the demand shock by trimming prices. This may already be evident in the PPI, which has slipped two consecutive months from a 3.1 percent gait to 2.4 percent in October. On the other hand, there are a number of indicators that suggest inflation will hold over until the end of the year at least. Consumer demand has proven strong in a sentiment gauge at a five year high through the third quarter, while the UBS consumption report for in October marked a four month high. However, regardless of how the consumer inflation index reports, markets suspect a December rate is already cemented in the SNBâ,"s mind.
Previous: Annual consumer inflation slowed for a second month in October, depressing growth to a 0.3 percent pace of growth from 1.5 percent only two months before. Putting the level into perspective, the monthly read was slowest pace of price growth since March of 2004. While a few domestic indicators suggested that there was a stumble in demand and activity, the demand from consumers who were fully equipped with strong wages and high employment were likely offsetting the dour sentiment. Instead, the drop in costs likely came primarily from the energy group. Led by a staggering drop in crude oil prices, the energy group has fallen offered a sizable relief to Swiss wallets. Despite this depression in inflation though, the SNB is still largely expected to continue its policy of quarter point rate hikes through December.
German Unemployment (NOV) (8:55GMT; 3:55EST)
(Change) (Rate)
Consensus: -30K 10.4%
Previous: -67K 10.3%
Outlook: German employers are expected to have added 30,000 people over the month of October as optimism rebounds ahead of the institution of a value added tax hike approaches. Prime Minster Angela Merkelâ,"s initiative to raise taxes on goods and services from 16 to 19 percent will take effect at the beginning of January. Business leaders and economists have shown strong pessimism regarding the taxes especially given the fragile state of domestic demand and a slowing global economy which could potentially hurt export demand. However, there may have been some impetus for German employers to take on more workers in October. With profit margins already boosted by the sharp drop in energy and other commodity prices over the past few months, a boost in employment may have seemed a worthwhile investment. Supporting this, IFO business confidence figures for November rose to the highest level in almost 16 years.
Previous: The number of unemployed Germans dropped 67K in the month of October â,“ far more than the expected decline of 23K. The decline surprisingly brought the unemployment rate down to match the March 2004 low of 10.4% from 10.6%. The data indicates the solid economic growth in Germany has passed through to boost employment levels, and bodes well for further expansion throughout the rest of 2006. The European Central Bank will likely be most interested to see how wage prices are holding up in the continually tightening labor market and may look for signs that price pressures are extending to that area.
UK GfK Consumer Confidence (NOV) (10:30GMT; 5:30EST)
Consensus: -5
Previous: -5
Outlook: The GfK measure of consumer confidence in the UK is expected to hold at -5 in November, as a continuously growing housing market and solid employment prospects helps maintain sentiment. Further boosting consumersâ," optimism was the state of energy prices. With November heating oil and gasoline prices remaining near relative lows, households were left with greater discretionary spending and confidence. On the other hand, there are a number of issues restraining a greater rebound in optimism. Despite the stability of the labor market, wages have yet to improve and could leave UK consumers questioning the stability of income growth, especially following the Bank of Englandâ,"s decision to hike rates to 5.00 percent.
Previous: UK consumer confidence improved more than expected in October as the GfK survey measure rose to -5 from -7 the month prior. A breakdown of the data showed that consumers' views on the general economic situation in the next 12 months rose six points to -15 in October, while expectations for household finances rose two points to +12. A robust housing market and growing employment led to the improved sentiment, even in the face of rising interest rates. Additionally, an index of shoppers' willingness to make large purchases climbed to +8 from +6, as also indicated by retail sales in October, which unexpectedly jumped 0.9 percent. Overall, the optimism of UK consumers helped underpin the Bank of Englandâ,"s decision to hike rates to 5.00 percent in November, as households proved to be resilient enough to handle further monetary policy tightening.
Canadian Gross Domestic Product (3Q) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
(MoM) (QoQ)
Consensus: 0.0% 2.0%
Previous: 0.3% 2.0%
Outlook: Canadian GDP likely remained exactly unchanged through October, with the Quarter-on-Quarter figure to show a more robust 2.0 percent annualized gain. Risks to this outlook remain remarkably balanced, with key factors pointing in diverging directions for the Canadian economy. Stronger-than-expected export growth could actually boost the headline GDP rate, but it remains to be seen whether this will completely offset declines in domestic consumer demand. With wholesale sales 1.6 percent lower and retail sales down 1.2 percent through September, it remains relatively clear that tight labor market conditions have not been enough to boost overall spending. Thus we go into tomorrowâ,"s Canadian GDP data without a clear outlook on which direction the number could go. Loonie bulls hope that growth improves, as falling oil prices have kept the domestic currency lower against its major counterparts.
Previous: Canada growth hit a six-month high through August, matching Februaryâ,"s 0.3 percent rate and moderating fears of recession for the national economy. This marked the second consecutive period of faster growth, but leaves the headline rate below long-term trends. Analysts will subsequently watch upcoming data to see if the national economy can manage to break through recently slowing expansion and pick up pace through the final quarter of the year. The domestic currencyâ,"s recent weakness may ease continued downward pressure on exportsâ,”a key facet of the worldâ,"s 8th largest economy.
US Personal Spending (OCT) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
(Spending) (Income)
Consensus: 0.1% 0.5%
Previous: 0.1% 0.5%
Outlook: Both US Personal Spending and Income look to remain unchanged on the month, with analysts predicting relatively weak consumption growth despite robust gains in wages. The net result may prove dollar-bullish, however, with strong income growth only to bolster consumer optimism and improve spending further down the road. With a second consecutive month of 0.5 percent gains, wage pressures may likewise boost overall inflation and make future interest rate cuts less likely. What remains to be seen is whether solid economic data will be able to lift the US dollar from recent doldrums, as the dollar index has dropped nearly percent in the past six days of trading.
Previous: Income and spending data showed a rare divergence through the month of September with a strong gain in wages producing little growth in expenditures. This was regardless enough to boost outlook on the US economy, especially as housing data continued to put a damper on overall domestic growth. The recent housing slump has been enough to cut third quarter GDP growth by nearly 1.2 percentage pointsâ,”leaving the headline rate at 2.0 percent. Clearly, US economy watchers will hope that income can continue its upward trend, offsetting weakness in other areas and boosting overall consumer demand.
US House Price Index (QoQ) (3Q) (15:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
Consensus: 0.5%
Previous: 1.2%
Outlook: The average price for a US home is expected to have grown 0.5 over the three months through September according to the consensus from economists. Recently, monthly new home and existing home sales indicators have reported in their price surveys that the mean price for American residences has dropped the most in decades. On the other hand, this substantial easing in prices did not come until the final months of the report, allowing for the potential for another positive quarterly report. From the Commerce Departmentâ,"s New Home sales report, prices had fallen 2.1 percent in July but quickly jumped 1.1 percent the following period. It was Septemberâ,"s print that was the most influential for the period though in a 9.3 percent drop in the average price for a newly finished home to $218,200. This was the biggest drop in price for newly completed homes since 1970. Since this portion of housing sales only accounts 15 percent of the total market, it will fall more to existing sales to move the quarterly price index. However, the recent price changes in the existing numbers were much the same. In September, the price for single-family residences dropped 2.5 percent, the biggest monthly decline since 1969. The quarterly House Price Index will be a useful indicator for policy makers as it will act as a barometer of health for one of markets worst performing sectors and as a level of inflation.
Previous: US housing price growth slowed for the fourth consecutive quarter in the three months through June. The steady decline in purchase price has quickly fallen in line with the drop in sales reported by the NAR and government over the same period. The number of potential buyers in the market for a home has steadily declined since the central bank initiated its policy of steady interest rate hikes that continued through the third quarter. With the benchmark lending rate finding highs not seen in years, banks in turn passed the cost on to consumers whose mortgages took the brunt of the pain. When slogging through the regional breakdown, the biggest change in the once strong growth numbers came from the Atlantic coast. From the New England area, growth slowed to a 0.2 percent crawl from 1.2 percent in the first quarter while the South Atlantic regionâ,"s pace of expansion was cut in half from 2.9 to 1.4 percent.
Japanese Nationwide Consumer Price Index (OCT) (23:30 GMT; 18:30 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: -0.1% 0.6%
Previous: -0.3% 0.6%
Outlook: As the battle of rhetoric rages on between the central bank and government as to when or if a rate hike will be needed in the near future, the Nationwide CPI for October will weigh in with an unbiased measurement for the pace of inflation. From the marketâ,"s consensus, there will be little change from Septemberâ,"s levels. Price growth for the month of October is expected to slip 0.1 percent while the annual gauge is looking at a repeat of its 0.6 percent pace of expansion. On the other hand, the leading Tokyo equivalent to the National indicator has already set the bar higher. Though the annual core figure had itself printed a repeat 0.5 percent, the less volatile core component printed a positive change for the first time in eight years. From the table that is used to tabulate the numerous price groups, a number of improvements were pulling the composite higher. Clothing and medical care costs led the charge with 1.6 percent and 1.1 percent increases respectively; but it was the trimming of the transport and entertainment groupsâ," declines that really pushed the number higher. Traders will be looking for much of the same from the national report. Should inflation heat up once again, policy makers will be one step closer to being sure of the necessity of another quarter point rate hike.
Previous: Price growth in Japan unexpectedly stalled in September as falling energy costs caught up to poor sales related to bad weather. The annual headline report slowed from its record 0.9 percent pace of expansion to 0.6 percent in September, while the core figure did the same only from 0.3 percent to a modest 0.2 percent. Much of the savings were passed on through the sharp drop in energy prices, which were based on a plunge in international crude prices beginning in late August, that cut the cost per barrel by more than a quarter of its record high in July. In fact, when the both energy and food prices are taken out of the equation, prices actually fell 0.5 percent. Another unique change in the month of September was the use of promotions and sales by retailers in industries like clothing and footware, where business leaders sought ways of making up for poor sales in the months before. With this change in the steady pace of inflation, perpetual doves in the market and in government positions jumped on the report to justify their claims that fragile economic growth is more important than inconsistent inflation.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.