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Pound Crosses Advance But Look Tired
By Jamie Saettele | Published  11/30/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Pound Crosses Advance But Look Tired

GBP/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The GBPJPY trades at prices not seen since 1998.  Price has rallied through the 11/9 high at 225.28 as well as the R2 monthly pivot at 226.54.  The new highs are accompanies with divergent daily oscillators and divergent hourly oscillators, which indicate the possibility for at least a pause in the uptrend.  Markets are not linear, although the move from 222.34 is about as linear is a market can get.  Daily RSI is overbought for the first time since the end of August (which led to a decline).  Resistance may be just above current price as a line drawn off of the 12/13/2005 high and the 8/31 high is near todayââ,¬â"¢s high.  If offers are hit, then support stems from the 11/19 low at 225.70.

GBP/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The GBPCHF found support near the 10/2 low at 2.3351 before bouncing to test the 50% fibo of 2.3863-2.3324 at 2.3592.  The rally reversed at the confluence of the 20 day SMA / Fibonacci level today at 2.3606.  The strong move lower from fibo resistance suggests that a deeper decline is in the works.  Also, a head and shoulders reversal pattern is evident on the daily chart.  A break below 2.3323 (11/27 low) would complete the pattern and expose the 8/21 and 9/11 lows at 2.3116/52.

GBP/AUD ââ,¬â€œ The GBPAUD continues to hold above a year long trendline (begins on 12/6/2005) and the 200 day SMA, which is at 2.4574 today.  Price above these two technical levels keeps the bias bullish.  Daily CCI is has declined from above 100, which gives scope to a reversal lower.  However, a decline below the 11/16 low at 2.4543, which is just below the mentioned trendline, is required in order for significant support to be breached.  Resistance is at the 11/28 high of 2.4989.  A push above shifts focus to the 61.8% fibo of 2.5414-2.4544 at 2.5080.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.