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Economic Release Alerts for December 1
By John Kicklighter | Published  11/30/2006 | Stocks , Options , Futures , Currency | Unrated
Economic Release Alerts for November 30

Swiss Gross Domestic Product (3Q) (06:45 GMT; 01:45 EST)
                         (QoQ)                   (YoY)
Consensus:         0.7%                    2.9%
Previous:             0.7%                    3.2%

Outlook:  The Swiss economy is expected to have grown 2.9 percent in the year through the third quarter, hovering near the SNBââ,¬â"¢s predicted 3.0 percent fiscal projection.  Though this would represent a step back from the slightly more aggressive pace of expansion in the second quarter, it would still put the economy on track for a six-year high.  A number of the economic indicators released during the same period offer support for these projections from both domestic and foreign sources.  Locally, business activity and consumer spending will play its hand in holding up growth.  Activity in the manufacturing sector, measured by the SVME PMI report, reached a record high in August with strong support from export demand.   Consumers were also playing their part as a three-and-a-half year low 3.2 percent jobless rate spurred retail sales growth through three months.  However, the export sector may remain the driver of growth in the third quarter.  In September, the trade balance reached an all-time high SFr 1.76 billion on a 1.1 percent jump in exports.  Despite these optimistic expectations for the previous quarter, there may be clouds on the horizon.  The KOF leading index has fallen consistently for five months following Juneââ,¬â"¢s high as an impending VAT take hike in Germany starting January looks to choke a vital artery of the Swiss economy.

Previous: Switzerlandââ,¬â"¢s $368 billion economy is on track to finish the year with a rate of growth not seen since 2000 according to the second quarterââ,¬â"¢s GDP report.  The European country tallied a 3.2 percent pace of growth in the second quarter to mimic the expansion in the opening months of the year.  From the State Secretariatââ,¬â"¢s breakdown of the economy, a few interesting changes were noted.  Though the monthly trade accounts were boasting sizable surpluses, exports for the period neither added to nor detracted from growth.  Also, heating domestic demand had yet to provide the strength expected as household consumption stepped up only 0.4 percent on the quarter.  On the other hand, fixed capital investment was more than making up for the shortfalls as the group soared 3.7 percent for the period.  Armed with the solid pace of growth, the SNB responded to growth as the means behind a possible surge in inflation and lifted the overnight cash rate 25 basis points to 1.75 percent in September. 

Swiss SVME PMI Survey (NOV) (09:00 GMT; 04:00 EST)
Consensus:         61.5
Previous:             62.3

Outlook:  Purchasing managers in Switzerland are expected to be less optimistic about the manufacturing sector in November. The SVME reading is anticipated to slip to 61.5, which would be in line with the October KOF leading indicator, which posted weaker than expected at 1.73, and marking the fifth decline in a row, pointing a further deceleration in the first half of 2007. However, this is not completely surprising, as the Swiss National Bank has already noted the growth has probably peaked and maintains a softer outlook for the end of 2006 through 2007. However, upside potential comes from consistent export growth in the month prior, which led the trade balance to post a wider-than-expected surplus of 1.58 billion Swiss francs. Should demand both domestically and abroad continue to flourish, signals from the manufacturing sector could remain strong.

Previous: Swiss manufacturing growth during the month of October slowed, as indicated by SVME PMI, which slipped lower than expected to 62.3 from 64.4 in the month prior. Purchasing managers indicated that exports to the US may be losing momentum as economic expansion slows. A breakdown of the data showed that the output and employment components declined, which does not bode well for acceleration in the manufacturing sector in coming months. However, the purchase price index gained to a reading of 74.5 from 72.6, underpinning the case for a continuation of rate normalization by the Swiss National Bank in December to 2.00%.

Canadian Employment (NOV) (12:00 GMT; 05:00 EST)
                       (Change)                 (Rate)
Consensus:        15.0K                     6.2%
Previous:            50.5K                     6.3%

Outlook:  Canadian employers are expected to have added 15,000 new hires to the payrolls this November, keeping the positive growth in national employment for a third month in a row.  Interestingly enough, this was the approximate consensus for Octoberââ,¬â"¢s report, which surprisingly printed more than three times bigger than what was expected.  Predictions this time around seem to be sound though, as other economic indicators have revealed a steady erosion of demand from both local and foreign sources.  As tradeââ,¬â"¢s support of the economy has slowly worn away over the past year, domestic spending has readily filled the gap.  However, slowing retail sales and the housing marketââ,¬â"¢s petering ascent are beginning to offer signs of distress.  Growth in the most recent New Housing Price index slowed to a 0.5 percent clip while retail sales for plunged 1.2 percent.  When the balance sheet is tallied though, the biggest strain on demand for Canadian goods, and local employment in turn, is likely to be seen in the manufacturing sector.  The surge in hiring in oil and commodity-rich regions like Alberta will likely taper as the value of the necessary goods have dropped quickly off of all-time highs.  Circular in nature, should firms begin to layoff workers in mass, the necessary consumer support may all-but disappear and leave the Canadian economy in a spot.

Previous: The market was surprised to learn Canadian managers hired 50,500 new workers in October, three times what was expected by economists.  With the sudden jump in the number of filled positions, and only a modest increase in the participation rate, the jobless rate was pushed from 6.4 percent to 6.2 percent, only slightly above the multi-decade lows set in May and June.  From the summary of Statistics Canadaââ,¬â"¢s labor force report though, underlying trends were tempering expectations that the strength would last long.  Most jobs were found on the part of the service industry and in the Alberta region.  Service-producing companies added 41,100 employees to staff and the oil-boom in Alberta was the basis for a 22,600 person increase in total jobs. Elsewhere however, the manufacturing side of the economy suffered another 15,200 firings as firms bowed under an expensive currency and easing value of goods.

US ISM Manufacturing (NOV) (15:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
Consensus:         51.9
Previous:             51.2

Outlook:  US Manufacturing is expected to rebound slightly in November after recording its slowest reading in over three years the month prior, hobbled by a contracting housing market and slowing consumer demand. The prognosis for November is mixed due to the contradictory data from the Empire Manufacturing (which improved) and Philly Fed (which improved only marginally) while the Chicago PMI plunged to lows not seen in years. Overall, however, lower exchange rates and lower energy costs should continue to keep the ISM number above the 50 boom/bust level.  Regardless of the read, the indicator will likely find a new level of interest from the market after the Fed reported on initial signs that the manufacturing sector is showing signs of slowing.

Previous: Manufacturing in the U.S. expanded at the slowest pace in more than three years last month and construction spending unexpectedly declined because of a deteriorating housing market. The Institute for Supply Management's factory index fell to 51.2, lower than forecast, from September's 52.9. A reading higher than 50 signals expansion. A measure of prices paid for raw materials dropped to the lowest in more than four years. Outlays for construction fell 0.3 percent in September following no change, the Commerce Department said in Washington.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.