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Market Forming Wide Range
By Toni Hansen | Published  12/1/2006 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Market Forming Wide Range

Good morning! The market had a difficult time making up its mind again on Thursday as it continued to correct within the daily range of the past week. The morning got off to a rocky start after the 10:00 ET economic data came out. The Chicago PMI fell to 49.4%, down from 53.5% in October, showing a greater-than-expected slowdown in business activity in the Chicago area. This marked the sharpest decline since 1980. The accompanying ISM national factory index due out on Friday will provide some additional excitement to end the week.

 

Even though the initial reaction to the 10:00 data was an extreme one, it didn't last very long. By 10:30 ET the market began to turn around. The Nasdaq experienced the most rapid recovery, pulling nearly back up into the day's highs by the 11:00 ET reversal period, while the Dow Jones Ind. Ave. and S&P 500 moved higher into their 5 minute 20 simple moving averages. There was more pressure in these indices, thanks in part to weakness in the retailers after disappointing same-store sales for November. These included stocks like WMT, JCP, GPS and COST.

As the 12:00 ET reversal period hit, the market had again retraced off resistance. The Dow and S&Ps experienced a notably slower pace on the move. This helped the market start to turn around heading into the afternoon. The market picked up pace after basing from 12:30-13:15 ET.  The breakout from that range, which occurred on light volume, led to new intraday highs in the Nasdaq, taking it into its 15 minute 200 sma resistance by 13:30 ET. The S&P 500 was able to make it back to its morning highs and both of these served to stall the rally, leading to a pullback that lasted until 14:30 ET.

The Dow and S&P were both able to use this latest intraday correction as a starting point for one last surge intraday. Both established new intraday highs and continued to move higher until the final reversal period at 15:30 ET. The Nasdaq was unable to bust its 15 minute 200 sma, however, and that continued to serve as resistance as it moved higher with the rest of the market before also turning around into the close.

This move in the last 30 minutes took the indices back down into the opening prices, resulting in very little change on the day in the indices. The Dow ($DJI) lost 4.80 points, the S&P 500 ($SPX) gained 1.15 points, and the Nasdaq ($COMPX) fell a mere 0.46 point on the day. My bias for Friday remains the same as heading into Thursday. The market is trying to form a wide range on the daily charts at highs and the prior highs will serve as resistance. The S&P has a risk of a slightly higher high due to relative strength, but that new high would have a good risk for serving as a trap before the market attempts to pull back in again.

Economic Reports and Events This Week
Monday: -
Tuesday: Durable Orders for Oct. (8:30 am), Consumer Confidence for Nov. (10:00 am), Existing Home Sales for Oct. (10:00 am)
Wednesday: GDP-Prel. and Chain Deflator-Prel. for Q3 (8:30 am), New Home Sales for Oct. (10:00 am), Crude Inventories 11/24 (10:30 am), Fed's Beige Book (2:00 pm)
Thursday: Initial Claims 11/25 (8:30 am), Personal Income and Spending for Oct. (8:30 am), Chicago PMI for Nov. (10:00 am), Help-Wanted Index for Oct. (10:00 am)
Friday: Auto Sales and Truck Sales for Nov. (12:00 am), Construction Spending for Oct. (10:00 am), ISM Index for Nov. (10:00 am)

Key Earnings Announcements This Week
Monday: DCI
Tuesday: AMWD, JTX, RTLX, SKIL, ARO, DBRN, RSTO, SIGM, and LNUX
Wednesday: DSW, OPSW, TIF, CHS, SNPS, and TIVO
Thursday: DLM, HNZ, MOV, MGAM, SFD, FNSR, HRB, ISLE, MCDTA, OVTI, and UNCA
Friday: KWD, and WMG
Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in lines with those compiled by Yahoo Finance and Briefing.com. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column.

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.