Categories
Search
 

Web

TigerShark
Popular Authors
  1. Dave Mecklenburg
  2. Momentum Trader
  3. Candlestick Trader
  4. Stock Scalper
  5. Pullback Trader
  6. Breakout Trader
  7. Reversal Trader
  8. Mean Reversion Trader
  9. Frugal Trader
  10. Swing Trader
  11. Canslim Investor
  12. Dog Investor
  13. Dave Landry
  14. Art Collins
  15. Lawrence G. McMillan
No popular authors found.
Website Info
 Free Festival of Traders Videos
Article Options
Popular Articles
  1. A 10-Day Trading System
  2. Use the Right Technical Tools When You Trade
  3. Which Stock Trading Theory Works?
  4. Conquer the Four Fears
  5. Advantages and Disadvantages of Different Trading Systems
No popular articles found.
Economic Release Alerts for December 4
By John Kicklighter | Published  12/2/2006 | Currency , Futures , Options , Stocks | Unrated
Economic Release Alerts for December 4

Australian TD Securities Inflation (NOV) (23:30 GMT; 18:30 EST)
                         (MoM)                    (YoY)
Consensus:         n/a                          n/a
Previous:            0.0%                       3.2%

Outlook:  Coming in under the wire, the TD Securities monthly inflation gauge will print only a few days before the RBA deliberates on interest rates.  Though there is no consensus among economists on how this indicator may print for proprietary gaugeâ,"s November read, the market will pay heed nonetheless.  From the few November indicators available from the Australian economic calendar, the forces of inflation look weak.  Consumer confidence for the period dropped 9.7 percent, while plans to purchase major household items fell 10.9 percent.  On the other hand, a few periphery factors may prove the driving for behind last monthâ,"s inflation barometer.  One issue is the worst drought in a century plaguing the nation. Also making an appearance after detracting from the previous few monthsâ," reads will be the cost of energy.  Depending on where the groupâ,"s measurement of the month ends, the price of crude oil closed above $63 per barrel recently after making a quick jaunt to $55 per barrel.  When it comes to monetary policy, futures related to interest rates are not pricing in a rate hike.  Barring a sizable jump in the annual inflation report, expectations for the governments quarterly CPI numbers to recede further, and the economy to bend under the drought, will tip the scales for the RBA.

Previous: Inflation in Australia passed the month of October unchanged, balanced by a jump in fruit and decline in fuel costs. Energy, which acted as the primary driver in second and third quarter government inflation reports encouraging the RBA to respond with rate hikes, continued to ease through October.  Over the month, the Australian consumer was enjoying the cheapest prices for domestic gasoline prices seen in 10 months.  While the volatile energy group was pressuring the price gauge lower, underlying inflation remained.  TDâ,"s core reads reported 0.2 percent price growth from September and a 2.6 percent pace from a year ago.  Though the annual report was within the central bankâ,"s 2 to 3 percent target ban, it wasnâ,"t enough to put off a rate hike.  This is likely a product of the central bankâ,"s new Governor stating that his primary job is to see off persistent inflation, a problem that is right around the corner when energy and food prices are concerned.

Japanese Capital Spending (Q3) (23:50 GMT; 18:50 EST)
                        (Spending)            (ex Software)
Consensus:         15.3%                     16.1%
Previous:             16.6%                     18.4%

Outlook:  Capital spending growth is expected to slow slightly to 15.3 percent in the third quarter after surging 16.6 percent in the prior period. Business investment is likely to have been one of the primary contributors to Japanese expansion, which unexpectedly grew at a 2.0 percent annual pace in the third quarter. Corporations have benefited from export growth due to booming demand abroad, along with a weaker yen, which made Japanese products cheaper. As a result, producers were able to invest more in expanding their firms and to hire additional workers, which have helped to tighten the labor market as well. However, this influx of hiring has had little effect on wages, which has led to a marked slowdown in consumer spending and a subsequent negative effect on GDP. Should demand for Japanese products weaken, capital spending and broad economic growth could be vulnerable in coming quarters.

Previous: Capital expenditures in Japan jumped more than expected in the second quarter at a rate of 16.6 percent, the fastest pace in five years. Capital spending, which together with consumer spending was the main driver of growth in 2005, was set to propel the Japanese economy on its own. Additionally, machinery orders, which point to capital spending in three to six months, surged at the fastest pace since 1989 in the second quarter. While the increase in capital spending was a positive for the Japanese economy, the Bank of Japan remained concerned that investment could overheat in the economy, lending a more hawkish bias to the central bank. However, given tepid price pressures and stagnating consumer spending, the Bank of Japan left rates at 0.25 percent following their decision to end ZIRP in July.

Japanese Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (OCT) (01:30 GMT; 20:30 EST)
Consensus:         0.2%
Previous:             0.0%

Outlook:  After two disappointing months, Japanese workers are expected to have received a boost in earnings in October.  Economists expect wage growth through the year to October to measure 0.2 percent, correcting the previous unchanged prints in August and September.  Earnings levels have suffered consistently over the past year even as unemployment held near an eight-year low.  Outside of the employment argument, there are a few reasons to believe employers boosted pay.  Confidence indicators have shown some level of strength.  The Small Business Confidence survey rose to its highest level since January for the same period, while the Eco Watchers Current Expectationâ,"s breakdown enjoyed an employment component at its high since March.  Even consumer gauges may point to a possible increase in wages.  The consumer confidence lifted modestly in October while retail sales also slowed their steady paring.  Earnings, and subsequently spending, continue to hold the BoJ back from a more aggressive monetary policy. With increased earnings comes domestic driven inflation and, theoretically, rate hikes.

Previous: Earnings growth in the worldâ,"s second largest economy stalled in October.  The average income measured 276,535 yen in the year through October, leaving ailing consumer spending with little support.  In fact, consumer spending over the same period dropped 6 percent â,“ three times what was expected.  Domestic consumption will be increasingly important in the month ahead as economies that often place large export order with Japanese factories begin to slow.  However, starting up the circulation of capital within the nationâ,"s boarders could be difficult to achieve.  Japanese consumers are closing the purse strings despite strong employment and a positive outlook on the economy.  On the other hand, firms are responded to weak sales at home by cutting wages to maintain strong revenues.  This was especially important through September when costs to business rose to a 25-year high; though this is likely to fall away as a reason to trim wages as energy costs melt away.

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (OCT) (10:00 GMT; 05:00 EST)
                          (MoM)                    (YoY)
Consensus:          0.2%                     4.1%
Previous:             -0.5%                     4.6%

Outlook:  Inflation across the Euro-Zone measured at the factory gate is expected to slow its aggressive annual pace of growth in October.  Though the PPI is expected to pick up 0.2 percent from the month prior, the year over year figure is expected to step back from its 4.6 percent stride to a more tolerable 4.1 percent pace of growth.  Expectations for the regionâ,"s pressure gauge are derived from the PPI performance of the groupâ,"s largest economies.  The Frenchâ,"s report of producer-level inflation slipped from a 2.8 percent annual pace to 2.4 percent.  More importantly, the German producer price index fell for the fifth consecutive month in October to match a 17-month low 4.6 percent.  Despite these expectations for lower inflation across the conglomerate economy, few are swayed to believe that a rate hike from the ECB will be put off.  Among the most transparent monetary officials in the world, ECB President Trichet has fallen back on his â,"strongly vigilantâ, phrase at the last meeting â,“ a term that is now almost synonymous with a rate hike.

Previous: The Euro-Zoneâ,"s Producer Price Index fell the most in nearly five years in October when it dropped 0.5 percent in just a month.  While not as dramatic, the annual drop was also impressive.  Since marking a 6.0 percent high in July only two months ago, the yearly pace of growth was battered down to 4.6 percent.  When looking at the breakdown of components, the easing in national prices was almost exclusively isolated to the energy group.  Though non-durables slipped 0.1 percent for the period, it was really a massive 2.5 percent drop in the volatile petroleum-based sub-gauge that put the indicator on the lam.  In fact, when the effects of cheaper fuel were excluded, the PPI report actually eked out a 0.1 percent pace.  On the other hand, this ex energy figure was still second consecutive easing in the monthly inflation numbers, suggesting the energy savings are beginning to filter through to the rest of the economy.

Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.