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Moderate Reaction to the Fed as Market Hits Strong Resistance
By Toni Hansen | Published  02/3/2005 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Moderate Reaction to the Fed as Market Hits Strong Resistance

Good day! As expected, Wednesday was a pretty slow day in the market. We saw a bit of a continuation of the correction we've been following for the past week, but again, the NASDAQ got left behind while the Dow Jones Ind. Ave. and the SP500 were the two to really head higher on the day.

The morning began with a pretty flat open. From there the NASDAQ pulled back into the prior afternoon's lows while the SP500 and Dow formed a base along their 5 minute 20 sma support for the first hour or so of the day. The NASDAQ support and the 5 minute 20 sma in the other two helped to lead to an upside breakout around 10:30 ET with a 2B in the NASDAQ and 5 minute cup with handle breakouts in the SP500 and Dow.

The upside was pretty limited and volume was light throughout the morning as the market stalled when the NASDAQ came into its morning highs resistance around 11:15 ET. This led to a correction in that index while the Dow and SP continued to trudge gradually higher into the 12:00 ET reversal period, which we saw hold well the prior day also. From here the SP500 pulled into its 15 minute 20 sma support and the NASDAQ came into its 5 minute 200 sma support intraday before we saw a gradual pull back into highs just before the Fed announcement. The market then based at those levels with volume extremely light until the 2:15 release.

The announcement of a quarter-percentage rate hike in the overnight interest rate didn't really come as a surprise to the market. They also held off from announcing any major policy changes. As such, the reaction was again less than we used to see a few years ago, although the volatility was still high. Initially we saw an upside breakout from the base at highs, but as the indices put in an equal move as compared to the morning rally, the indices held, dropping sharply off the resistance zones to pull back into mid-day lows. There the market based for about 20 minutes before breaking lower once again. The Dow only broke by enough to form a 2B reversal on the 5 minute charts into the last 30 minutes of the day, but the NASDAQ, which has been underperforming the rest of the market all week, put in new intraday lows before it was able to correct to about mid-day into the close.

Going into Thursday, the market has a great deal of overhead resistance on the larger intraday and daily charts. The Dow is hitting its 60 minute 200 sma both it and the SP500 are hitting prior highs from around the 18th-19th. The NASDAQ is also hitting strong resistance with the 20 day sma. As such, I am expecting a bit more bearish action intraday, but since the SP500 and Dow moved higher at a pretty good relative pace, I do not plan on being aggressive about it and will instead just be looking for intraday opportunities. I am not finding much at the moment for lower risk swingtrades.

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.