UK Industrial Production (OCT P) (09:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: 0.1% 1.6%
Previous: 0.2% 0.5%
Outlook: UK industrial production is expected to edge 0.1 percent higher in October, as growth in the sector continues at a snail-like pace. Manufacturing has increasingly become an important part of economic expansion, as the sector accounts for about 15 percent of GDP and helped support economic expansion of 0.7 percent in each quarter so far this year. However, the October reading of manufacturing PMI highlights recent moderation in the sector, as the index declined on everything from output, new orders, and employment. As a result, tepid industrial output readings may reflect the same downfalls.
Previous: Industrial production in the UK picked up in September, as the figure rose 0.2% from 0.1% the month prior. However, manufacturing production, a large component of industrial production, stagnated after jumping 0.4% in August. Though the headline report improved from last month, the figures were below expectations and left Cable vulnerable. The breakdown showed that oil and gas production resumed growth after falling 2.1% during the month prior. In the manufacturing index, a 2.3% jump in chemical production was offset by a 1.9% drop in wood product output. Overall, the data highlights the fragile recovery of the industrial sector in the UK, but still points to growth.
Canadian Ivey PMI (NOV) (15:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)
Consensus: 60.0
Previous: 59.5
Outlook: Purchasing managers in Canada are expected to be optimistic regarding industrial growth during the month of November, as the Ivey PMI survey is anticipated to rise to 60.0 from 59.5 in the month prior. The employment component should give the figure a boost, as Statistics Canadaââ,¬â"¢s November report indicated that manufacturers hired 13,200 people during the month. However, gains in the labor market were primarily for part-time jobs, which may reflect seasonal hiring that will come to an end at the conclusion of the holidays. Meanwhile, prices may take a bite out of the Ivey PMI figure as input prices likely declined. Nevertheless, the November industrial reading should indicate that the sector continued to expand and should help support growth in the fourth quarter.
Previous: The closely-watched Canadian Ivey PMI survey showed that purchasing managers remained bullish of future industrial growth. After dipping to 4-month lows in August, the business barometer retraced to 59.9 in September, and subsequently beat consensus estimates to remain just 0.4 points below through October. Leading strength, the employment index remained exactly unchanged at 58.8 and reflected continued expectations of robust labor growth. Likewise significant, the Inventory figure gained 4 points to a four-month high at 56.1--implying that businesses continue to build stockpiles in anticipation of strong demand. The report was undoubtedly bullish for Canadian industry, but was unable to spark significant strength in the domestic currency.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (20:00 GMT; 15:00 EST)
Consensus: 7.25%
Previous: 7.25%
Outlook: Headed by Governor Alan Bollard, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the nationââ,¬â"¢s overnight cash rate unchanged at 7.25 percent in its last meeting for the year. Should the central bank decide to leave the rate alone once more, it would mark a full year since they last changed the benchmark. Looking ahead to the coming decision, the same justification in October for deferring a shift in policy will likely resurface. One of the top concerns for policy officials will be the potential from inflation gauges. The third quarter, government-measured CPI report will have little sway over a final decision since the modest deceleration was obviously not reflecting the full effect of cheaper energy prices. Furthermore, the price related gauges since then have been broadly mixed as the moderation in third quarter producer prices was soundly offset by a predicted rise in labor costs over the same period. In fact, this wage growth will likely act as the guide for overall sentiment among the RBNZââ,¬â"¢s ranks since aggressive consumer spending has been the main driver behind domestic price pressures. In the past month, the resolve of consumers spending habits was tested by a rise in the unemployment rate through the third quarter from 3.6 percent to 3.8 percent, only to be met with solid 1.0 percent growth in retail sales through the same period. Even businesses, who are pinched by an expensive currency and high lending rates are enjoying a sound boost in confidence. The ANZ business spending indicator for October reported a large jump while the confidence survey for the following month printed for the strongest read since February of 2005. Given all these factors, the market is pricing in a steady rate outcome; though, like Bollard said in October, the possibility for another hike will not be taken off the table.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.