EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ The EURUSD is currently testing the 12/4 low at 1.3281.  The dip below 1.3281 argues that a top is in place at 1.3367 and that the next move of consequence is towards the 1.3130 level.  RSI and CCI on the daily remain overbought and warn of the pending correction.  A move to 1.3130 could be a 4th wave that would be followed by a rally in a 5th wave to above 1.3367 before a much larger corrective move lower takes place.   

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The consolidation from the 114.42 low yesterday appears to be tracing out a triangle.  Triangles are terminal patterns, meaning that they typically result in a move in the direction of the previous trend to complete that trend.  If this is indeed a triangle, then expectations are for a decline below 114.42 to lower areas of support and the forming of a bottom.  Support resides at the 8/4 low of 113.95.  115.17 needs to hold for the terminal thrust from the triangle to play out ââ,¬â€œ so upside risk is limited at the current juncture. 

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Cable appears to be nearing the end of a 5 wave bullish sequence from 1.7046.  The 5th wave of this advance began on 10/11 at 1.8515 and is likely near the end of its 3rd wave.  Thus, what is left is a corrective move lower (which looks to be occurring now) and perhaps one more high above 1.9846 before a multi month decline begins to correct the advance from 1.7046 .  Fibo support begins at the 38.2% of 1.8834-1.9846 at 1.9461.  Support at that area is reinforced by the 11/27 gap opening high at 1.9463.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ The USDCHF may very well be forming a base from which to work higher.  Yesterday was an inside day at the lower Bollinger Band on the daily ââ,¬â€œ which has the tendency to lead to mark bottoms.  A rally above the 12/4 high at 1.2006 gives scope to additional gains with focus on the 11/29 high at 1.2116.  1.1898 needs to hold in order for the immediate bottoming scenario to play out.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ The larger uptrend remains in place above the support line drawn off of the 9/1, 9/28 and 10/30 lows and short term downside risk is limited due to the support line from the short term channel (see chart below).  Only a decline below the mentioned supporting trendline suggests the potential for a significant downside move.  That line is at 1.1274 today and increases 4 pips per day.  The next bullish target would be the 11/21 high at 1.1493.  Daily oscillators remain above midpoints and thus bullish.     

AUDUSD ââ,¬â€œ Fridayââ,¬â"¢s a bearish reverse hammer candle warns of a pending correction of the nearly vertical move higher and that correction may be in its early stages now with price testing yesterdayââ,¬â"¢s low at .7847 this morning.  Daily RSI has crossed below 70 ââ,¬â€œ which instills confidence in a move lower.  On the other hand, a bullish pennant could be forming since the .7921 high on 12/1.  In this case, a thrust higher past .7921 would be the favored view.  A decline below .7842 would more strongly argue for the bearish scenario.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ The Kiwi dollar is approaching support from the 11/28 high and 12/1 low at .6824.  The decline from .6905 is only in 3 waves (corrective) which favors a rally attempt from near current price.  Still, this may be the beginning of a larger bearish move as RSI has crossed below 70 on the daily and CCI remains extreme (above 100).  A decline below .6824 argues that a top is in place at .6905.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.