EUR/USD â�,�“ The EURUSD decline from the 1.3367 is not very inspiring but it looks like there are already 5 waves up from 1.2761.  Thus, the EURUSD may be tracing out a flat correction.  This means that going forward â�,�“ another high above 1.3367 before a more impulsive decline is possible.  Ultimately, probability favors a decline as the next move of consequence towards the 38.2% of 1.2761-1.3366 at 1.3136.  Favoring the larger turn lower scenario is the fact that daily CCI has declined below 100 but RSI remains overbought above 70.  

USD/JPY â�,�“ The triangle pattern that we proposed yesterday is no longer valid due to the rally above 115.17 yesterday.  The point to watch at the moment is the trendline drawn off the 11/21 high and 12/1 high.  That line is just above current price near 115.40.  A definitive break above exposes the 38.2% fibo of 118.46-114.42 at 115.95.  Resistance there is reinforced by the 200 day SMA at 116.11.  Still, the rally today to 115.36 could have completed a 3 wave correction â�,�“ in which case the most probable move is lower below 114.42 to test the 7/10 low at 113.42.


               
GBP/USD â�,�“ Cable appears to be nearing the end of a 5 wave bullish sequence from 1.7046.  The 5th wave of this advance began on 10/11 at 1.8515 and is likely near the end of its 3rd wave.  Thus, what is left is a corrective move lower (which looks to be occurring now) and perhaps one more high above 1.9846 before a multi month decline begins to correct the advance from 1.7046 .  Fibo support begins at the 38.2% of 1.8834-1.9846 at 1.9461.  Support at that area is reinforced by the 11/27 gap opening high at 1.9463.

USD/CHF â�,�“ The USDCHF may very well be forming a base from which to work higher.  An inside day at the lower Bollinger Band on the daily occurred on 12/4 â�,�“ which has the tendency to mark bottoms.  That candle was also a doji.  A rally above the 12/4 high at 1.2006 gives scope to additional gains with focus on the 11/29 high at 1.2116.  1.1898 needs to hold in order for the immediate bottoming scenario to play out.  Similar to the EURUSD, CCI has indicated a potential reversal as the indicator has increased above -100 but RSI remains below 30.

USD/CAD â�,�“ The larger uptrend remains in place above the support line drawn off of the 9/1, 9/28 and 10/30 lows.  A shorter term support line is drawn off of the 11/28 low at 1.1285 and the 12/5 low at 1.1379 (see below).  Only a decline below the mentioned supporting trendline suggests the potential for a significant downside move.  That line is at 1.1278 today and increases 4 pips per day.  The next bullish target past 1.1493 is the 4/13 high at 1.1533.  Daily oscillators remain above midpoints and thus bullish.

AUD/USD â�,�“ We presented two scenarios yesterday â�,�“ â�,��"Fridayâ�,��"�s a bearish reverse hammer candle warns of a pending correction of the nearly vertical move higher and that correction may be in its early stages now with price testing yesterdayâ�,��"�s low at .7847 this morning.  Daily RSI has crossed below 70 â�,�“ which instills confidence in a move lower.  On the other hand, a bullish pennant could be forming since the .7921 high on 12/1.  In this case, a thrust higher past .7921 would be the favored view.  A decline below .7842 would more strongly argue for the bearish scenario.â�,�  Price action since yesterday favors the second scenario.

NZD/USD â�,�“ The Kiwi dollar shot through the 12/4 high at .6905 today but yesterdayâ�,��"�s doji still suggests a larger downturn.  As we mentioned yesterday, daily RSI has broken below 70 for the first time since 9/4.  That signal resulted in a nearly 200 pips drop.  In addition, a 5 wave advance from .6574 appears to have taken place thus wave structure too favors the downside with an initial bearish target at the 38.2% fibo of .6574-.6920 at .6788.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.