Good morning! The market pushed higher into the open on Thursday following the early morning jobs data. The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell 34,000 to 324,000, in line with expectations. This gave the indices that final stab at highs that was on the table heading into the day, although it came a little more quickly than I had expected. This created a trap pattern in the Dow Jones Industrial Average by creating a slightly higher high, but the overall weakness set by the slower pace on the upside and congestion along support in the Nasdaq prevailed. Within 15 to 30 minutes the bears found their opening and quickly took over.


Tech stocks came under a great deal of pressure on Thursday. Apple (AAPL) fell more than 3% after news that the company's latest multimedia device, the iPhone, which was anticipated to be released in January, is now not expected to be available until late in the first quarter or even early into the second quarter of the new year. Research In Motion (RIMM) also had a strong impact on the tech sector after downgrades from RBC Capital and Morgan Keegan. The stock fell about 5%, aided by a technical sell pattern on the daily charts after it hugged the 20 day simple moving average for more than a week. The stock was looking for any excuse to bust that support level and the news provided just the catalyst needed to accomplish that. RBC Capital also downgraded BEA Systems (BEAS), citing increased competition from Oracle. It was also aided by low-level congestion heading into the day, which was able to break with the news.

The market overall experienced an expansion of the tight daily range it had been stuck in for several days, following through with our expectations for better intraday activity on the session. The bears followed through well on their reversal and assisted with the momentum. The market moved lower through the morning, although the Nasdaq found support at the 10:45 ET reversal period. The pace of the selling slowed on all three indices at this time, but the Dow Jones Ind. Ave. and S&P 500 tried the lows again into 11:30 ET, finding support of their own from the lows of the trading range on the 15-60 minute charts that had held for the prior two days.

The late morning retest of lows allowed the momentum to change enough that the market was able to manage a bit of a recovery over noon, creating a 15 minute bear flag on the Nasdaq and an Avalanche pattern in the Dow and S&Ps with the 15 minute 20 simple moving average serving as resistance. The overall activity during this time was on the choppy side with the bulls holding back after getting burned in the morning's trading.
From about 12:45 to 13:45 ET the market began to congest along the 5 minute 20 sma support. The activity was very similar to that experienced by RIMM on its daily chart. Once that support gave, the bears returned full force. The selling came in several waves on the 5 minute charts, but continued until it had mimicked the morning decline. That equal move at a pace comparable to the morning selloff allowed the market a slight reprieve into the close as the market corrected to the drop, but it was not gradual enough to aid the market in a strong bounce off that support.
The Nasdaq is currently triggering the same pattern that RIMM experienced on its daily chart, and the overall market is behaving on the daily charts in a manner that imitates the activity that took place from 11:30 to 13:30 ET intraday on the 5 minute charts on Thursday. As a result, my bias heading into the weekend, and even into early next week, is in favor of bears. It will be very easy for the market to drop into its 50 day sma over the next week. The Nasdaq will hit it first, quite possibly before this week is even over, depending on whether it has any help from Friday morning's jobs data.
Economic Reports and Events This Week
Monday: -
Tuesday: Productivity-Rev. for Q3 (8:30 am), Factory Orders for Oct. (10:00 am), ISM Services for Nov. (10:00 am)
Wednesday: Crude Inventories 12/01 (10:30 am)
Thursday: Initial Claims 12/02 (8:30 am), Consumer Credit for Oct. (3:00 pm)
Friday: Average Workweek, Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, and Unemployment Rate for Nov. (8:30 am), Mich. Sentiment-Prel. for Dec. (10:00 am)
Key Earnings Announcements This Week
Monday: NRGY, IMKTA, CMTL, CNQR, and PLL
Tuesday: AZO, KR, SAFM, TOL, WWE, AGIL, CPRT, NOVL, and PLAB
Wednesday: KFY, TWTR, NX, CWST, DDMX, GEF, LQDT, NCS, SEAC, UTI, and VTS
Thursday: CRMT, CBUK, FLE, GIL, HITK, JJZ, JOSB, METH, MOV, PTMK, TOPT, TTC, ATW, CENT, SMOS, DMND, ESL, NSM, SHFL, and PAY
Friday: BKRS
Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in lines with those compiled by Yahoo Finance and Briefing.com. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column.
Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.