It has now been two weeks since both the Nasdaq and Dow topped. Some might recall the powerful selling that met the market just after the Thanksgiving weekend. The Nasdaq, in particular has been struggling to hold its footing ever since. With the exception of a rally that lasted a total of only three trading hours, the Nasdaq has been dominated by the bears during this time. The Dow on the other hand, has been quite the roller coaster. Now, what has got most market participants amazed, myself included, is the ever-resilient and mighty S&P 500, whose upward trend since the July lows has been nearly flawless - the only real "crack" in the design was that trading day after Thanksgiving weekend, November 27, where no one was spared.
One might wonder why, over the last couple of weeks, the S&P 500, which really "summarizes" the action of the speculative market (Nasdaq) and the Blue Chip market (Dow), is out in the northern part of the charts on its own, while the other two measures are huffing and behind it. Well, aside from being the main barometer knowledgeable short-term traders (market makers included) utilize to establish directional posture, let us not forget that the S&P 500 is also the main barometer that is used to measure performance across a multitude of equity funds that invest for larger time horizons. As the year draws to a close, funds that are not performing at least in-line with the S&P 500 are running behind, and thus this "pressure to perform" would drive much of the inflow of money into instruments that would greatly affect this index. This is particularly so in today's "new" stock market, where the Index and Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's) continue to rise in popularity.
This creates quite an "interesting" environment where a lot of the cash that's moving into the stock market is being deployed by both investors and fund managers into the actual barometer itself: the S&P 500. I say now "interesting" because the S&P 500 is not just on a near-flawless uptrend since the July lows, but if you really want to talk big, it also happens to be 4-years deep into an even larger near-flawless uptrend. In my view, the strength of the S&P 500 this deep into the game, is driven by the "congregation of the late." Well, we all know what happens when the majority are buying the same thing at the same time: the market ends up with a whole lot of sellers - at the same time. If it's your belief that fund managers are not subject to serious timing errors, it's time to think again.
Despite this "slightly" bearish viewpoint for larger time frames (in this case, the intermediate-term time horizon), let us not confuse it with trends of the smaller time horizon. While the Nasdaq and Dow did top-off two weeks ago, we must maintain a high degree of respect to the mighty S&P 500, as its trends across multiple time horizons are still dominated solidly by the bulls. Since we have already been tracking the markets' larger time horizons in recent articles, let's take a look at the situation in the smaller time horizons, using the hourly charts:
Chart Notations:
Chart Notations:
Fernando Gonzalez is in his 10th year as an active trader, technical analyst and content contributor to the active trading community and a long list of popular financial media. Online Trading Academy trading knowledge...your most valuable form of capital.