Japanese Consumer Confidence (NOV) (05:00 GMT; 00:00 EST)
Consensus: 48.8
Previous: 48.4
Outlook: Sentiment in the consumer base of the worldââ,¬â"¢s second largest economy is expected to pick up slightly from October. The confidence survey is predicted to have picked up to 48.8 last month, which would bring it the closest to breeching the expansionary barrier in five months. However, given the recent data flow, greater optimism may be difficult to achieve. Only days before, the Eco Watchers survey, which measures the sentiment of businesses close to the consumer, plunged in its November read. The gauge of current conditions dropped to its lowest since July as all but one of its components weakened. In similar fashion, the expectations figure dropped below the 50.0 level, demarking a balance of pessimism, while also putting in the lowest level since January of 2005. Contributing tumbling sentiment one step away from the consumer was a third quarter GDP revision that was more than halved to 0.8 percent annual growth following cuts in consumer spending and corporate investment. It now rests upon perceptions of employment, cheaper energy prices and improved weather to balance consumersââ,¬â"¢ moods. Should the survey remain net pessimistic, it could leverage the disappointment in growth to keep a BoJ December rate hike off the table.
Previous: Confidence among Japanese households grew to the highest level in three months in October as strong employment and wage trends wore on the consumersââ,¬â"¢ good side. As the island nation has steadily picked itself out of a recession and slowly shed deflation over the past few years, consumersââ,¬â"¢ spirits have cautiously been lifted. One of the key concerns for the domestic base was joblessness which has held near an eight year low in recent months. Wages on the other hand have not followed suit. Trying to control margins, employers left pay levels untouched through October from the same levels a year ago. This has in turn offered little incentive to increase spending. Nonetheless, the breakdown in the confidence survey offered promising statistics. Wage growth prospects fort eh month picked up 2 points to 44.9 while the employment outlook improved to 52.4.
UK Producer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) (09:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
(Input) (Output)
Consensus: 1.7% 1.9%
Previous: 3.8% 1.7%
Outlook: : The UK Producer Price Indices are expected to follow steady trends for the month of November. Seasonally adjusted monthly PPI predictions expect Input prices to decrease by -0.1%, and Core PPI Output prices to rise by 0.1%. In terms of yearly n.s.a. figures, PPI Input prices are anticipated to rise by 1.7%, down from 3.8% last year, and PPI Output prices, also known as factory gate prices, are likely to remain at 2.5%. The month saw the Pound appreciate steadily against the dollar, giving way for cheaper inputs. Low Energy Prices, although having retreated from steady declines through out October, also contributed to cheaper inputs. The Bank of Englandââ,¬â"¢s decision to raise interest rates twice this year has hurt the manufacturing industry by hindering borrowing, but was able to control factory gate inflation. The rate hikesââ,¬â"¢ effects, along with the strengthened Pound, boosted output prices. Sharp declines in retail sales were followed by a decline in consumer confidence. Should the PPI survey be consistent with predictions then it is all the more likely for the BoE to shift to a more neutral/dovish bias.
Previous: The UKââ,¬â"¢s PPI indices for October showed a decrease in Input prices on the back of falling energy prices and raw materials. Octoberââ,¬â"¢s yearly PPI for output prices showed the lowest increase in prices since March 2004. However, the rate decrease was not enough to curb the Consumer Price Index, prompting the BoE to raise interest rates to 5% in fear of inflation. Markets will watch upcoming numbers to gauge the likelihood of future Bank of England interest rate hikes, with risks remaining to the downside if PPI figures pose no risk to price stability.
UK Visible Trade Balance (OCT) (09:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
Consensus: -Ã,£6.60 Billion
Previous: -Ã,£6.56 Billion
Outlook: The UK Visible Trade balance looks to stay relatively unchanged through the month of October, but the recently sharp appreciation in the domestic currency is likely to place downward pressure on UK exports moving forward. The British Pound has seen little other than upward momentum in recent times, with Octoberââ,¬â"¢s torrid gains leading it 14 percent higher on the year. Though the repercussions of such an increase are unlikely to be felt for several months, it remains clear that a strong currency can only lead the net balance lower through coming months. As such, risks likely remain to the downside for recent figure, with the future likewise looking dim for British exporters.
Previous: The UK trade deficit narrowed for the second time in as many months, with a drop in imports outpacing a similar decline in exports. Headline results were squarely in line with expectations, but many claim that figures are being distorted by Value Added Tax evasion. In fact, separate surveys by the Bank of England showed that exports were at or near 9-year highs. In fact, the bank reported that better trade figures will support overall economic growth. These comments were of course made prior to the Poundââ,¬â"¢s sharp rally to fresh 14-year highs, however, which should add an interesting twist to the upcoming Bank of England minutes.
Japanese Domestic Corporate Good Price Index (NOV) (23:50 GMT; 18:50 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: -0.1% 2.7%
Previous: -0.3% 2.8%
Outlook: Producer prices in Japan are expected to recover little from Octoberââ,¬â"¢s sudden pull back. Last monthââ,¬â"¢s Corporate Goods Price Index is expected to slip an additional 0.1 percent since October, pulling the annual measurement down to a 2.7 percent pace of growth. Projections for a second month of deflating prices find few complementary indicators, but a few shifts are easily accessible. As was the situation in the previous month, Japanese firms enjoyed crude prices stabilizing at yearly lows. One indicator that could conduct the DCGP numbers was the Tokyo consumer inflation gauge. In November, headline inflation in Japanââ,¬â"¢s largest city slipped 0.2 percent, for a third consecutive monthly contraction. Annual growth slowed for the third consecutive month from its 0.8 percent high in August to 0.2 percent. However, one point of expense for produces was the level of the Japanese yen. The currency was reaching recent record lows against the euro and British pound, which boosts the costs for imported raw materials through the exchange of currencies. The BoJ will monitor this inflation indicator to offer better guidance for a possible rate cut on at its December meeting.
Previous: The Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index, a measure of prices at the factory level, plunged 0.3 percent over the month of October. The correction in inflation pressure comes at an unfavorable time as central bankers deliberate whether deflation has finally come to an end in the nation. In historical perspective, the monthly decline matched the largest in 5 years. In turn, the monthly number helped draw the annual measurement from a 25-year high 3.5 percent growth pace to 2.8 percent. Central to the drop in the overall indicator was the yet another month of falling energy prices. The component of oil and oil-related products fell 7.6 percent following a 16.8 percent drop in the prior period. In a broader context, though cheaper costs helped producers to secure revenues while domestic spending struggles to rise, it has also played a part in keeping healthy inflation from finding its way back into the economy. If prices do not steadily rise into the future, the BoJ may be forced to hold its hand on any more rate hikes.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.