Energies
Crude ends the week at critical resistance and has some serious momentum after failing to follow through on the first retracement attempt.  I would almost prefer a breakout on Monday and a key reversal top setup than another top at $60 and yet another failed attempt at selling off.  I am selling August $65 calls and getting aggressively short on a break and close below 57.60.  Natural gas is offering great premium collection on 20 point spike up days and I like selling August 10s if we get a bounce like that next week.  Put premium is cheap there as well so an OTM synthetic is not such a bad idea.

Financials
Resistance holds under 1230 and the market is turning bearish - keep in mind we are not in a real breakout or breakdown market here but the mid-range is upon us and the market is somewhere between bearish and who cares at this price.  Bonds are testing some critical resistance at the same price point we key reversed on after the last employment report.  Look for 120 to hold or we might be looking at borrowing for free in the not to distant future.  The dollar hit some key short term bull target prices for me and I dwindling down on more longs for the near term.  Overall the market remains bullish long term.  The Canadian dollar is a good short and I would sell the euro and buy the yen (1 to 2) for the next couple of weeks.

Grains
Grain strength persisted as dry weather fears offered short covering rallies and pre-weekend strength.  Look for a Monday failure and a general selloff next week despite the intermediate term bullishness of the market.  Sell August $9 bean calls and wait out a buy perhaps 10 cents lower on corn and 15 cents on wheat.

Meats
Cattle is in some serious trouble on Monday as after the close the USDA confirms the second official case of mad cow in the U.S.  Expect some selling pressure, but keep in mind the market will have the weekend to digest the news, so it will be interesting to see just how much the market is willing to break next week.  Keep in mind that the market new about this case for months, had a positive and negative result and third Western blot test came back with the definitive positive result that now puts the market in a perplexing situation.  This cow never made it to market so to speak and so it can partially be viewed as though proper safety precautions were taken.  Clearly this will be outweighed by overwhelming concern over U.S. beef demand and foreign bans.  Hogs and bellies make the turnaround on the news as the alternative but the market sentiment might be bearish all meat given the now repetitive nature of the issue.  I say buy hogs on value and watch the ride in cattle all next week - it will be a wild one.

Metals
Gold continues to defy currency relationship and foreign investor logic short term and offer a great short entry long term.  I remain steadfast in my long term view of a correction in the metals complex and highly recommend accumulating October gold puts at the current steep discount.  Silver remains a sell and copper is an avoidable sporadic market.  Palladium is a buy and platinum is a sell despite the spike through my previous topside resistance.

Softs
Cocoa took a shot in the arm today as the UN unanimously agreed to send more troops to the Ivory Coast ahead of key elections in October.  This is a sell the news reaction but the market should be looking at it another way - why do they need troops if it is going to be a peaceful election process?  Everyone but the U.S. is screaming for more help and they were hoping for at least 2,000 more troops - they got about half.  They know it is gong to be utter chaos and just because the troops are going there now there is nothing to say they won't evac if it gets too intense - remember Rwanda.  OJ gave us the bull break we needed, but it is putting me to sleep and lacking the momentum I want to get excited about this market.  I remain partially long and will be patient because the market has the potential to run another 20% if we get over this initial hurdle.  Cotton remains a sell.  Coffee is ugly but still in line with my retracement expectations and I continue to recommend buying into frost season and getting long with September and December bull call spreads.  Lumber remains a short.  Sugar is a buy but a minor pullback may open the door to a better entry point.

James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.