We continue to find that most charts are not in the midst of a clear trend, nor are they at the beginning of a reversal. Rather, we see a lot of charts that are at inflection points, or on the verge of doing something noteworthy. Today we'll look at three charts worth keeping an eye on this coming week, as they might be setting up something of an opportunity.
Telecom
The Dow Jones Telecom Index (DJUSTL) has been in an impressive rally since 2003, a rally made of several smaller segments, however. One thing we've observed twice now is a bullish follow-through once resistance at a prior high has been broken. Both of those resistance lines are marked in blue on our chart. For instance, the index struggled with the 134 level three times several months ago, but once that mark was finally broken in February, we saw a run to 146. We saw that 146 area also act as a ceiling in July, but when it was breached, the telecom index pushed up to the next ceiling of 165.
In fact, the 165 area is the line we're keying in on today (horizontal red line). Today's high of 165.40 leaves the index right on the brink of a breakout move, but not quite there yet. If that line can be crossed with a little conviction, the odds of making good on the MACD crossover are considerably better. The past two breakout of this variety led to gains between 12 and 20 points, just for perspective.
Dow Jones Telecom Index (DJUSTL) - Daily
Toys
We first started looking at the obscure Dow Jones Toys Index (DJUSTY) in late July, looking for a move from 280 to 330 (and maybe even as high as 352. as mentioned in September). Well, when we hit 348 in mid-October, we figured - based on the chart at the time - that was about as good as it was going to get. Well, the index continued to move a little higher, but has clearly faded back from the recent peak near 371. The toy index is currently trading at 352, down 5.1% from its recent high.
So that's it for the toy-makers? Maybe, but maybe not. The strength of the move between July and November was impressive, so these names may be more favored than you think. The real test may come in the form of finding significant technical support. As of right now, the 50 day average (purple) is at 351 -- right where today's low has been. And, it looks like a support effort is being staged there. If the 50 day moving average line can indeed hold up as support, we won't be surprised to see the uptrend from the last few months be renewed into an uptrend for the next few months. It all seems to hinge on the 50 day average line (which by the way, was a great signal line back in July).
Dow Jones Toys Index (DJUSTY) - Daily
Autos
We turned bullish on the auto industry several months ago, in the June 19th Sector Spotlight. And, the Dow Jones Auto Index (DJUSAU) had a pretty good run after that, moving from 156 to as high as 214. Since hitting that peak on November 16th though, the auto manufacturers have been going in reverse. The current level of 185 represents a pullback of 14 from the recent high -- an ugly turn of events.
As a result, the index is now approaching what we think will be a critical support line. In September, the auto index rallied sharply to 200, and fell back just as sharply to 182. That could have been the end of the road, but these stocks recovered well. Will they repeat the feat? We may not have to wait too long to find out. Either way, with the index currently just a fraction above that mark, we could see a big move in one direction or the other within a few days.
Dow Jones Auto Index (DJUSAU)
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.