UK Unemployment (NOV) (09:30 GMT; 04:30 EST)
(Change) (Rate)
Consensus: 4.0K 3.0%
Previous: 1.2K 3.0%
Outlook: The number of jobless claims in the UK is expected to pick up once again in the month of November by 4,000 to 965,300. The unemployment rate will be of interest to the markets, as the influx of jobless claims has generally been a result of immigration from Eastern Europe to the UK. Should the jobless rate jump, concerns may be quelled that wage growth could seep into CPI, following this past weekâ,"s reports which saw the annual rate of inflation hit a 10-year high of 2.7 percent. Additionally, RPI, the figure used to adjust payrolls in the UK, unexpectedly gained to an annualized 3.9 percent. Should data indicate that a tighter job market could induce further wage growth, traders may begin to price in another round of monetary policy action by the BOE in early 2007.
Previous: Unemployment in the UK rose to the highest level in almost five years during the month of October as the number of claimant for jobless benefits rose 1,200 to 961,300. However, the unemployment rate on that basis held at 3.0 percent. The results came as the Bank of England closely watched the labor market for signs of wage pressures as inflation exceeded the central bankâ,"s target of 2.0 percent and the economy expanded at an above-average pace. In the end, the Bank of England deemed the risks of inflation too high to leave alone, and hiked rates in November to 5.00 percent.
US Advanced Retail Sales (NOV) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
(Advanced) (Ex Autos)
Consensus: 0.2% 0.3%
Previous: -0.4% -0.4%
Outlook: Retail sales are expected to pick up going into the beginning of the holiday shopping season. Economists expect sales grew 0.2 percent in November though recent indicators from the same period provide a mixed picture from projections to be drawn from. Wholesales sales, considered a closely related indicator, recently reported a 0.5 percent contraction following a 1.5 percent drop in October. This marked the first back-to-back drop in sales at the wholesaler level since May of 2003. Another indicator foreshadowing weak domestic spending was the ISMâ,"s manufacturing report, which revealed the first contraction for the sector in over three years. While both of these reports draw up concerns, there are still a number of supports for the retail sector. Countering the manufacturing slump, activity in the service sector (which accounts for an estimated 90 percent of the economy) accelerated to its fastest pace in six months. Perhaps more telling though, the University of Michiganâ,"s consumer sentiment read held close to its 15-month high in November. Stubborn optimism may indicate cheaper gas prices and employment at a five year high are working to offset the continued slide in home equity. Should sales data falter, confidence that strong consumer spending will prop up the economy could begin to fall away.
Previous: A second monthly contraction in retail sales in October was less than the market initially expected. However, a later revision pulled the 0.2 percent slide into a 0.4 percent slide to deepen the concern over Americansâ," spending habits. On the other hand, most of the declines were easily isolated. Sales at gasoline stations dropped 6 percent over the month, following an 11 percent contraction, as the price of gas continued to fall from recent high. In fact, when the effects of volatile energy sales were excluded, the retail gauge was actually in the black with a 0.4 percent rise. Another underlying improvement to the gauge was the boost in autos and parts sales. Prone to wide fluctuations from month to month, recently depressed vehicle sales actually grew 0.6 percent in October as consumers acted on low unemployment and falling gasoline prices to take on obligation of financing a vehicle.
New Zealand Retail Sales (OCT) (21:45 GMT; 16:45 EST)
Consensus: 0.1%
Previous: 1.2%
Outlook: Retail sales are expected to grow for a sixth consecutive month in October as RNBZ Governor Alan Bollard deliberates whether another rate hike will be needed to cool domestic spending. Economists predict sales to grow 0.1 percent, following a 1.2 percent jump in September. New Zealandersâ," boosted spending habits have been little suppressed over the past year despite the record high 7.25 percent overnight lending rate that weighs on purchases made through revolving credit or other loans. According to a recent indicator, credit card spending in October grew 0.4 percent or NZ$2.2 billion. The spendthrift nature of New Zealand consumers has been boosted by a jobless rate that at 3.8 percent is near a record low. Other statistics feeding into positive sales come from the persistently strong housing market and the recent report of imports at a record high. In the statement following the recent RBNZ meeting, policy makers specifically honed in on the â,"resilienceâ, in consumer spending as reasoning for keeping the door open to future rate hikes. Should sales hold in positive territory; Bollard, who is charged with keeping inflation in a band, may be forced to further remove monetary stimulus to finally curb spending.
Previous: Wrapping up the quarter in dramatic fashion, retail sales in September jumped a greater than expected 1.2 percent. The sizable rise was spurred by a drop in gasoline prices and rise in strength in housing prices that provided more money to consumers. Strength in the labor market was also encouraging more liberal spending habits. The jobless rate through the third quarter held down to 3.8 percent while wages over the same period accelerated to record highs. Looking to the breakdown in the sales report, there was a noticeable divergence in where kiwi dollars were going. Sales at super markets and grocers jumped 1.0 percent while those for appliances rallied 0.9 percent. Conversely, purchases of vehicles dropped 2.0 percent while fuel receipts plunged 2.4 percent. Though the quarter however, the statistics were much different. Headline sales over the three-month period rose 1.0 percent, while those of autos grew 1.3 percent as gasoline edged only 0.1 percent lower.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.