Euro-Zone CPI (NOV) (10:00GMT; 5:00EST)
(MoM) (YoY) (Core)
Consensus: 0.0% 1.8% 1.6%
Previous: 0.1% 1.6% 1.5%
Outlook: Consumer prices in November are anticipated to hold steady for the month, confirming flash estimates of a 1.8 percent annual rate of inflation. Additionally, core CPI is expected to pick up to 1.6 percent as the base effects of lower energy prices level off and could highlight a slow build up of underling inflation pressures. The prospect of the German VAT next year is also casting a greater shadow on price developments. Although the annual rate of CPI still remains below the European Central Bank's upper limit for price stability, growth is very robust and there is room for producers to pass on higher costs, so core inflation is increasingly likely to gradually catch up with the headline rate. As a result, inflation could breach the 2 percent level again and keep the ECB on a tightening bias.
Previous: Inflation in the Euro-zone slowed to 1.6 percent in October as the first annual drop in energy prices since 2004 kept the rate below the European Central Bank's limit for a second month. The slowdown didnââ,¬â"¢t ease concerns at the ECB that price increases will accelerate next year, as the inflation outlook led the central bank to hike rates 25 basis points in December to 3.50 percent, despite cooler economic expansion in the third quarter and dwindling consumer confidence. Furthermore, the ECB left the door open to further policy tightening in 2007 as the central bank remains highly sensitive to price data.
Euro-Zone Industrial Production (OCT) (10:00GMT; 5:00EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: 0.4% 4.4%
Previous: -0.1% 3.3%
Outlook: Euro-zone industrial production is anticipated to pick up as demand for exported products likely remained buoyant amidst a weaker euro, which was priced at a three month low during October. The October manufacturing PMI reading bodes well for the industrial production report, as PMI rose to 57.0 from 56.6 on the back of increases in output and new orders. However, weak German data for the month creates substantial downside risk, as industrial output unexpectedly plummeted 1.4 percent - the worst decline in 3 years - resulting in an annual rate of 3.4%. A slowdown in construction led the fallout at -2.3 percent while energy output posted -1.9 percent. Additionally, German factory orders unexpectedly dropped 1.1 percent for the month led by a slump in domestic demand for cars and trucks.
Previous: Industrial production in the Eurozone corrected lower in October, falling 1.0 percent after jumping 1.7 percent the month prior. The decline was led by a 3.3 percent drop in durable consumer goods and a 2.2 percent decline in intermediate products. While energy production continued to slip as well, the slowdown eased at a more level rate of -0.3 percent. Additionally, with the euro at relatively high levels, Euro-zone products were a more expensive, less attractive option for importers.
US Consumer Price Index (YoY) (NOV) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
(Headline) (Core)
Consensus: 2.2% 2.7%
Previous: 1.3% 2.7%
Outlook: The marketââ,¬â"¢s favored inflation indicator is expected to rebound for Novemberââ,¬â"¢s read as energy prices level out. Price growth in the consumer basket is expected to push back into positive territory for the period with a 0.2 percent advance to cut short the back-to-back 0.5 percent declines recorded in the previous two months. More significant for interest rate speculators is the consensus for a 2.2 percent advance in the annual figure following the slowest growth since June of 2002 printed in October. Using the recently released import price index for the same period, these predictions for the headline numbers seem well-founded. According to the report, prices for imported petroleum products contracted 1.6 percent in November, compared to the massive 10.1 percent drop in the previous month. Furthermore, the core CPI measurement stripped of its volatile components is expected to pick up an addition 0.2 percent advance for the month, while keeping up the 2.7 percent pace for the year. This also seems substantiated by the import gauge, whose own equivalent of core inflation came in with a 0.7 percent advance, the biggest monthly move in over a year. Should consumer-side inflation show signs that it is beginning to pick up once again, the Fed will find support for staying its hand and leaving the door open for a rate hike in the future at the last policy meeting.
Previous: Core inflation finally followed the broader headline figures in their sizable declines in October. Over the period, prices slid 0.5 percent for a second month, while the annual gauge slowed to a 1.3 percent pace of growth. Breaking the groups down, it was readily apparent that the most influencial changes were once again in the petroleum group. The overall energy complex dropped 7 percent in value while gasoline prices for the period plunged 11.1 percent. However, softer prices were not solely isolated to the volatile energy group in October, evidenced by the first deceleration in annual core inflation in eight months. From its decade-high 2.9 percent pace in September, the concentrated inflation measure eased its pace to 2.7 percent growth. This pull back seemed to be accomplished by declines in categories like apparel, vehicles and personal computers.
US Net Securities Purchases (TICS) (OCT) (14:00 GMT; 09:00 EST)
Consensus: $70.0B
Previous: $65.1B
Outlook: Economists expect net purchases of US securities to rise to $70 billion, easily filling the short-fall in the goods and services trade account. After tallying a net outflow in September, foreign investment in equities may have provided a boost to the TICS number. For the period, the benchmark S&P 500 continued on its seemingly unstoppable advance with another 4.4 percent rally to a mark a new 6-year high. However, while stocks may be good for a relatively strong contribution to the influx of capital, the burden for a strong report will likely fall to corporate and government debt. After the unexpected drop in September, treasuries are expected to rebound as international investors seek out the high yield from the near-riskless paper. Potentially helping it along, the yield on the benchmark 10-year treasury note rose over 20 basis points through the first three weeks of the month. One long-term caveat to interest in treasuries though could be the plans to diversify out of the US dollar by central banks in the East. While the PBoC has noted interest in the higher return of the government paper, others may diversify more wholly away from US assets.
Previous: Normalizing after the record surplus in August, the September TICS balance eased to a net $65.1 billion inflow. The sharp correction was almost solely a product of reduced interest in government debt. Elsewhere, net purchases of corporate bonds grew from a net $37.4 billion surplus to $52.7 billion, while corporate stocks purchases grew to a $9.6 billion balance from $4.4 billion in August. This left government agency bonds and treasuries to handicap the overall numbers. Purchases of agency bonds retraced only modestly to $26.1 billion. The pain was felt in a net $374 million of sales in treasury paper. This was the first deficit since February of 2003 and a dramatic shift from the $44.2 billion surplus the month before.
Richard Lee is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.