New Zealand Business Confidence (DEC) (12:00 GMT; 07:00 EST)
Consensus:         n/a
Previous:             -14

Outlook: There is no consensus estimate available for New Zealand business confidence for the current month, but statistics are piling up against the strong advance that has built through the year.  Recently released lagging indicators have shored up speculation of growing optimism.  The terms of trade gauge, measuring how many imports can be purchases with the value of exports dropped 1.9 percent through the period.  Elsewhere, factories reported sales grew 2.7 percent through the same three month period.  While this was a healthy rise, its place in a slowing trend may foretell trouble is ahead.  Besides these backward looking reports, there are a number of events that could have built pessimism specifically in December.  Energy price have started to perk up, boosting costs; while the national currency has also been pushed higher to trim export potential.  Another worry that has come to the forefront in the past weeks is the possibility of higher lending rates.  After the RBNZ decided to keep the overnight cash rate unchanged, they made it clear that a rate hike could still be around the corner.  To counter all this, businesses still have the domestic consumer.  New Zealand shoppers have taken advantage of strong employment and wage growth to purchase goods with cash and credit.  In the most recent retail sales report in fact, the value of total purchases grew for a sixth consecutive month by 0.3 percent.  Should business optimism continue to push towards a positive balance, RNBZ Governor Bollard may find it an occasion to lift rates.

Previous: Business confidence rose for a third month in November.  The National Bank of New Zealandââ,¬â"¢s sentiment survey rose to -14 to mark the closest to turning positive the indicator has come since February of 2005.  This boost in confidence is riding the strong trend of consumer spending which is expected to pull economic growth off of the five-year low pace of growth reported through the second quarter.  From the surveyââ,¬â"¢s tally on some of the unique questions, an interesting picture develops.  Business leaders on balance reported stronger exports, investment and a brighter outlook.  On the other hand, employment level has stepped back while inflation expectations have also been pared.  This creates precarious position in which domestic spending is highly dependant hiring, while firms see a reduced chance of a rate hike, which Bollard has frequently cautioned could be in the works.  However, until a downturn is recorded, the positive turn for profits in recent history will lead act as the bellwether for improved business confidence.

Canadian International Securities Transactions (OCT) (13:30GMT; 8:30EST)
Consensus:          C$0.500B           
Previous:             -C$3.077B

Outlook: Canadaââ,¬â"¢s net foreign investment looks to rebound slightly, though remaining near 8-month lows, as a surge in Canadians sending capital abroad limits any major gain in the net-income figure. Consensus estimates call for a jump from last monthââ,¬â"¢s number, but the headline result masks the true implications of recent developments. Indeed, recent weakness in Canadian International Securities Transactions hides the fact that foreigners continue to invest in the worldââ,¬â"¢s 8th largest economy as indicated by the S&P/TSXââ,¬â"¢s gains during the month of October. However, the underlying trend may shift in coming months, however, as foreign investors will likely cut investments following the Canadian governmentââ,¬â"¢s decision to repeal advantageous business tax laws.

Previous: The Canadian securities trade account plunged into negative territory for the second time this year in September.  With predictions of the previous surplus to widen slightly in September, the C$3.077 billion shortfall took the market by surprise. This lack of interest in Canadian assets comes as international investors are warded off by a neutral Bank of Canada on interest rates while already yields in other countries continue to rise to record highs.  From the breakdown of the composite, the biggest drop was seen in a C$2.75 billion sell-off in shares. Longer-termed investments had also slipped C$644 million, while money-market paper actually grew C$334 million.

US Current Account Balance (3Q) (13:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Consensus:         -$225.0B
Previous:             -$218.4B

Outlook: The US Current Account Deficit, composed of the net physical and capital inflows, is expected to balloon to a record $225 billion in the third quarter. Concerning outflows, the cumulative effects of the much maligned physical trade balance will effectively produce considerable downward pressure on the shortfall.  New record deficits were tallied on both July and August, the latter growing to $68.52 billion.  All together, the three monthââ,¬â"¢s accounted for over $200 billion of value funneled out of the economy.  However, there could be some help found with the foreign investment.  At the same time the physical account marked a record deficit, net foreign purchases of US assets surged to a record $113.96 billion surplus. In total, the three months worth of surplus brought a sizable $217.97 billion.  Whether or not these two offset each other will be a closely scrutinized statistic.  If the current account balance capsizes the TICS numbers with the help of declines in net income and unilateral transfers, a reaction could come from the political front as well as the Forex lines. As it is, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is having a hard time keeping the protectionist agenda of the to-do list in Congress.  An unfavorable account balance for the third quarter could quickly stock conversation over trade sanctions on Chinese imports.

Previous: The US Current Account Deficit increased from $213 billion to $218 billion last quarter thanks primarily to a stubbornly wide trade deficit. The second largest shortfall on record, the long standing deficit was pulled lower by the physical, income and transfer groups.  For a third quarter, the goods and services balance printed yet another three months of $60-billion plus deficits.  All together, the hefty toll came to $193.8 billion.  No small contribution itself, unilateral transfers (essentially a gift or one sided flow from the US) put up its own $20.4 billion shortfall.  Topping it off, the balance of income reported $4.1 billion was paid in interest to foreign investors.

John Kicklighter is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.