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Profit-taking Racks the Market
By Toni Hansen | Published  12/19/2006 | Futures , Stocks | Unrated
Profit-taking Racks the Market

Good morning! The market had a rough day to kick off the new week. After gapping slightly higher into the open, the indices fell into a trading range into 10:00 ET. After breaking higher from this range, the Dow Jones Industrial Average again made new record highs intraday. Losses in the tech sector, however, weighed heavily upon the Nasdaq. The indices ran into  significant price resistance from Friday's highs right as the 10:15 ET reversal period rolled around. Since the upside momentum into those highs was stronger than average though, it took a bit longer for the market to make it back to the morning lows in the Nasdaq and S&Ps where it found some initial support at 11:00 ET.

Although this was some decent intraday support, on a 15 minute chart the correction was minimal, showing a decent bias for more downside into noon. A small base on the 5 minute charts, lasting about half an hour provided just the right opportunity, breaking lower out of 11:30 ET and taking the market back into Friday's lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average held that support perfectly at 12:00 ET, although the weaker Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 continued into 15 minute support from Thursday.

Volume dropped off in the indices into the early afternoon as the market fell into another low-level base, this time on the 15 minute charts. Two waves of corrective action within the range gave way to further selling coming out of the 14:00 ET reversal period. This is my favorite afternoon reversal period because many of the strongest late day trends will take off at this point. The Dow remained stronger than the other two indices and pulled up while the Nasdaq and S&Ps based. This meant that when it broke lower again, it had to deal with the mid-day lows as initial support, while the other two indices quickly made new intraday lows and continued at a strong pace into the 15:00 ET reversal period when the Nasdaq closed the gap from last Wednesday's close.

The Dow Jones Ind. Ave. ($DJI) ended the session lower by only 4.25 points. The S&P 500  fell 4.61 points (-0.3%). The weakest of the three, the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) lost 21.63 points (-0.9%).

There are a number of factors that are going to keep the market a bit more volatile over the next couple day, including the PPI and housing data on Tuesday and a number of earnings reports from the likes of CC, CTAS, BBBY, COGN, etc. The reversal on Monday will also add concern to many of the bulls who are likely to jump on board the profit-taking bandwagon if indices aren't able to round off at lows intraday on Tuesday and make a strong intraday reversal. The trading range from the past month will serve as a nice support zone, but right now the pace heading into that support is stronger than average, so the current bias remains bearish, albeit in need of a correction intraday.

Economic Reports and Events This Week
Monday: Current Account for Q3 (8:30 am)
Tuesday: Housing Starts, Building Permits, PPI, and Core PPI for Nov. (8:30 am)
Wednesday: Crude Inventories 12/15 (10:30 am)
Thursday: GDP-Final for Q3 and Chain Deflator-Final for Q3 (8:30 am), Initial Claims 12/16 (8:30 am), Leading Indicators for Nov. (10:00 am), Philadelphia Fed for Dec. (12:00 pm)
Friday: Durable Orders, Personal Income and Personal Spending for Nov. (8:30 am), Mich. Sentiment - Rev. for Dec. (10:00 am)

Key Earnings Announcements This Week
Monday: JOYG, SCS, APSG, FCEL, HOV, and ORCL
Tuesday: CC, FDS, MCS, MS, SCHL, CHAP, CBK, CTAS, DRI, FSII, PALM, and SMOD
Wednesday: AIR, ATU, BMET, KMX, FDO, COMS, ACN, APOG, BBBY, COGN, FINL, MLHR, NKE, and PAYX
Thursday: AGE, AM, CCL, CMC, CAG, GIS, NOBH, RAD, SMSC, WOR, EGLS, RHT, RIMM, RECN, SHFL, SLR, and TIBX
Friday: No companies are scheduled to report.
Note: All economic numbers and earnings reports are in lines with those compiled by Yahoo Finance and Briefing.com. Occasionally changes will occur that are made after the posting of this column.

Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com.