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Euro Faces Resistance
By Jamie Saettele | Published  12/22/2006 | Currency | Unrated
Euro Faces Resistance

EUR/USD ââ,¬â€œ Price is little changed from yesterday, as EUR/USD remains in a short-term down trending channel with resistance formed from a line connecting the 12/3 and 12/12 highs and with support at a line connecting the 11/30, 12/15, and 12/18 lows. A break through the top of the channel could target the early December highs. However, easing oscillators could signal that price will continue to consolidate within the range and take aim on the support line of the channel which currently sits at 1.3020.

USD/JPY ââ,¬â€œ The USDJPY continues to be hemmed in by the massive resistance at the 118.50 level as the pair churns in one of the narrowest channels in recent memory. Typically the resolution of this compressed volatility action serves as an excellent forecaster of future directionality. Therefore, should the pair break above the 118.50 ceiling it may target the 119.87 high of 10/13. On the other hand a hard break below the 118.00 could well lead the pair lower to retest the recent lows below the 115.00 figure. Thus given these compressed conditions a breakout in either direction could be a potent signal.

GBP/USD ââ,¬â€œ Over the past few weeks, Cable has not strayed far from the 1.9432 ââ,¬â€œ 1.9748 range, as price remains contained within a short-term down trending channel on the 240 minute chart. With daily oscillators gradually weakening, GPBUSD appears to be losing momentum and could decline to target the 12/18 low of 1.9432. However, a surge higher would face resistance at the 12/20 high of 1.9747.

USD/CHF ââ,¬â€œ Swissie has held under a resistance trendline formed at the 10/13 high of 1.2769, and oscillators have started to ease back following the USDCHF bounce up to the 12/18 high of 1.2267. Should price hold under this trendline, a decline would target support at the confluence of the 23.6% fibo of 1.2769 ââ,¬â€œ 1.1878 and the 12/11 high at 1.2084/97. However, a break above resistance (currently at 1.2195 and falling rapidly at 10 points a day) could find USDCHF back at the 12/18 high.

USD/CAD ââ,¬â€œ USDCAD remains contained in an uptrending channel with price recently gaining momentum from the 12/20 low at 1.1428. Daily oscillators have turned slightly higher as USDCAD looks to target the confluence of the 12/15 high and the 78.6% fibo of 1.1771 ââ,¬â€œ 1.0927 at 1.1588/90. However, a downturn would face support at significant support at a trendline connecting the 10/30 and 11/28 lows followed by another trendline connecting the 9/1 and 10/30 lows.

AUD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Aussie refuses to move from the .7850 area as price continues to consolidate, though the pair is just barely holding above support at the 23.6% fibo of .7615 - .7929. The next move higher targets the .7890 swing high set on 12/13/06 just below the important .7900 level which the pair was unable to overcome on the first attempt higher. A break below the near term hammer at .7820 negates the bullish view and suggests yet another retest of recent lows at .7790.

NZD/USD ââ,¬â€œ Kiwi momentum picked up again as the NZDUSD pair attempts a solid break through massive resistance at the .7000 level. RSI has enter overbought territory, meaning weââ,¬â"¢ll be looking for a drop below the 70 level for a turn in prive. The daily charts show that NZDUSD could be in a monstrous head and shoulders pattern with the left shoulder at the 2/17/2004 high, and the head at the 3/17/2005 high. If Kiwiââ,¬â"¢s uptrend falters at current price, Kiwi could be set to make hefty declines towards .6000. However, a sustained break higher could bring the pair to the 2/18/2004 high of .7095.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.