EUR/USD â�,�“ See Wednesdaysâ�,��"� commentary for a longer term perspective as weâ�,��"�ll concentrate on the short term possibilities this morning.  Since the 12/4 high at 1.3367, the EURUSD has traded within a well defined bearish channel.  The waves within the channel are overlapping and thus corrective.  The question to be asked is â�,�“ is this the beginning of a larger correction or the end of a short-term correction.  With the pair right at the downward sloping resistance line, the near term price action may give us an answer.  A break through the line and above the 1.3200 figure exposes the 12/20 high at 1.3244 (also the 61.8% of 1.3367-1.3051).  If the line holds, then bears will look to test yesterdayâ�,��"�s low at 1.3089.  A break below 1.3051 strongly suggests that a multi week decline is underway.          

USD/JPY â�,�“ The year long inverse head and shoulders pattern remains intact and a break above the neckline, a resistance line drawn off of 121.38 and 119.87, would warrant a longer term bullish bias.  That neckline is at 119.52 today and decreases about 2 pips per day.  From February to April, the 119.00 figure was solid resistance.  There appears to be a decent amount of selling interest around 119.00 this time around as price has stalled at the 119.02 today and yesterday after topping out at 119.21 the prior two days.  With 5 waves up from 114.42, a retracement could challenge the 38.2% of 114.42-119.21 at 117.38.  An initial bearish target is the 23.6% fibo at 118 at 118.07.  119.21 must hold as resistance.  If 119.21 trades, then the aforementioned resistance line (neckline) at 119.52 is in play.        

GBP/USD â�,�“ A triangle appears to be playing out in the 4th wave position (since the 3rd wave high at 1.9846).  Keep in mind that this triangle is the 4th wave of the larger 5th wave â�,�“ so a 5th of the 5th thrust higher could exceed 1.9846 but the upside would then be limited when compared to longer term downside risk.  Volatility could contract a bit more before a break, but the triangle is nearing its apex (which favors a breakout).  The bullish pivot is 1.9677.  A break below 1.9513 does damage to the bullish structure and shifts focus to 1.9432.     

USD/CHF â�,�“ The USDCHF has slipped from yesterdayâ�,��"�s high at 1.2271 (which is defended by the 12/18 high at 1.2267 â�,�“ these highs form a double top).  After probing a support line drawn from the 1.1878 low for several days, price is below the line which hints at additional weakness.  The 10 day SMA has held as support since 12/8 and the moving averages is at 1.2201 currently.  A break below the 10 day SMA exposes the 12/20 low at 1.2110.  The double top at 1.2267/71 is critical for the bearish case.    

USD/CAD â�,�“ We have commented the last two days that â�,��" While the larger bullish bias remains intact above 1.1428 (this keeps the sequence of higher lows intact), daily oscillators nearing overbought territory at the fibo level warn of a temporary top.â�,�  Bulls were rejected at the upper end of the 4 month bullish channel on 12/27.  Sellers may eventually challenge the bottom end of the channel.  The line is at 1.1350 today but increases 5 pips per day.  While the uptrend since 9/1 has been choppy, the declines within the uptrend have been rapid (long red candles).  The 12/27 high at 1.1636 must hold for the bearish bias to remain intact.  Initial support is the centerline  of the bullish channel just below 1.1500.  The centerline of the channel is at 1.1490 today and increases 5 pips per day.        

AUD/USD â�,�“ The AUDUSD  made a run at the 12/8 high of .7929 but topped out at .7922 this morning and the pair has retreated to below .7900.  The longer term bullish structure remains intact above .7778 but the short term triple top (12/1, 12/8, 12/29) may serve to limit gains over the near term.  Support from former resistance is just below current price at .7878.  A failure to hold there brings the 12/27 low into play at .7807.  Wave structure on the daily remains bullish (the Aussie appears to be in a 5th wave up).  A break above .7929 could see a run on the 2004 high at .8003. 

NZD/USD â�,�“ The Kiwi has followed the AUDUSD and also slipped today after breaking yesterdayâ�,��"�s high this morning.  Daily RSI has declined below 70, which is a strong reversal signal.  In this case, support is at former resistance, which begins at the 12/20 high at .6987, then the 12/14 high at .6945.  A steep trendline also provides support â�,�“ which is at .6771 today and increases 5 pips per day.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.