Categories
Search
 

Web

TigerShark
Popular Authors
  1. Dave Mecklenburg
  2. Momentum Trader
  3. Candlestick Trader
  4. Stock Scalper
  5. Pullback Trader
  6. Breakout Trader
  7. Reversal Trader
  8. Mean Reversion Trader
  9. Frugal Trader
  10. Swing Trader
  11. Canslim Investor
  12. Dog Investor
  13. Dave Landry
  14. Art Collins
  15. Lawrence G. McMillan
No popular authors found.
Website Info
 Free Festival of Traders Videos
Article Options
Popular Articles
  1. A 10-Day Trading System
  2. Use the Right Technical Tools When You Trade
  3. Which Stock Trading Theory Works?
  4. Conquer the Four Fears
  5. Advantages and Disadvantages of Different Trading Systems
No popular articles found.
Investors, Commentators Catching On
By Bill Bonner | Published  12/29/2006 | Stocks | Unrated
Investors, Commentators Catching On

And so, we arrive at the end of the year.

"Investors Ride Liquidity Wave," says the FT.

Bank Credit Analyst takes it a step further into 2007: "Another Year of Riding the Liquidity Wave," it forecasts.

Gold rose $6 yesterday - perhaps prefiguring this. Stocks were off slightly. And the dollar lost ground too...though, not much.

Investors, commentators, and kibitzers are beginning to catch on. In the last couple of days, we have read at least a half dozen reports - even in the Washington Post - making the connection between trade deficits, global liquidity, investor complacency, high-flying asset prices, derivatives, and the widening wealth gap.

We simplify for the benefit of readers with tight schedules or short attention spans:

The United States puts out dollars - trillions of them. U.S. consumers use the dollars to overspend, by buying products from overseas, approximately $1.06 worth of buying for every dollar actually earned. Foreign governments want the spending to continue. Instead of sending the dollars back where they came from by buying American goods, they issue local currencies to buy them and put them in their central bank vaults. All this extra money is then magnified...2...3...10 times...as it is lent, re-lent and used as reserves for various financial instruments.

Meanwhile a whole new industry has risen up to help with the lending, mortgaging, gambling that goes along with this explosion of money. Derivatives now equal seven times world GDP and are growing five times as fast. The new 'liquidity' is floating up financial assets all over the world.

Traditionally, more money in the system caused consumer price inflation - which was seen as a threat to the well being of the rich as well as the masses. Central bankers knew they had to get it under control or they would be swamped by it. But this new liquidity is different. People love it. The lumps never get a chance to use it to buy toilet paper. Instead, it sloshes around the hedge funds, banks, financial houses and rich financiers'...in a 'wave of liquidity' upon which so many super-wealthy are now riding. In 1980, the ratio of financial assets to GDP stood at about 1.5 to 1. Now, it is about 4 to 1.

Yes, dear reader, upon this ocean of liquidity rides a great Titanic of asset price inflation. It is why Picasso, Klimt and Pollack paintings sell for such absurd prices. It is why houses in Aspen, Greenwich and Kensington have reached such breathtaking prices. It is why Chinese stocks have doubled in the last year. And it is why the Dow is at an all-time high...and why Manhattan real estate is selling for such high prices that even the rats are having to pack up and move to New Jersey.

Yes...the Titanic is obvious...it is right in front of us. But where is the iceberg?

Oh, you say, there are no more icebergs. And you're probably right. The geniuses who run hedge funds and central banks have it all figured out. They've got their radar screens. They've got their charts and graphs. They've got their formulae. Who are we to argue with them?

We won't even try. Instead, strike up the band! Open up the bar! It's the end of 2006 and we aim to have a good time. Damn the icebergs; full speed ahead!

Bill Bonner is the President of Agora Publishing.  For more on Bill Bonner, visit The Daily Reckoning.