Swiss Consumer Price Index (DEC (06:45 GMT; 01:45 EDT)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: 0.0% 0.6%
Previous: 0.0% 0.5%
Outlook: Swiss inflation is expected to flat-line over the month of December but pick up slightly to 0.6 percent on an annual basis. Predictions that a slower pace of price growth will persist during the month are founded in the steady deterioration of growth trends in Switzerland, as expansion likely peaked months ago. Recently, the manufacturing sector has reported that activity levels are starting falter. More importantly, firms may find guidance in the KOFââ,¬â"¢s leading growth index, which is used to forecast economic expansion in the coming six months, as the indicator has fallen for six straight months through December. On the other hand, producer prices have managed to hold at robust levels, with the November figure rising to 2.8 percent on an annual basis ââ,¬â€œ just below the all-time high of 3.1 percent. Thus, underlying price pressures may be building in the Swiss economy, albeit at a very slow pace.
Previous: Annual consumer inflation in Switzerland grew slightly to 0.5 percent in November from a mild 0.3 percent while the monthly rate went unchanged. The pickup in the annual pace was led by higher costs for clothing and housing, as the Swiss National Bank prepared to raise interest rates to 2.00 percent. Unlike the European Central Bank, the Swiss central bank hasn't been under pressure to raise rates to counter inflation, as their primary goal in tightening monetary policy has been to normalize rates from their relatively low levels. As such, the SNB plans on continuing to raise interest rates as long as economic data meets the central bankââ,¬â"¢s outlook.
UK GfK Consumer Confidence (DEC) (10:30GMT; 5:30EST)
Consensus: -6
Previous: -7
Outlook: Consumer confidence in the UK is expected to rise slightly to -6 in December as a continuously growing housing market and solid employment prospects help maintain sentiment. With property values rising steadily each month and wages starting to creep up, households are feeling more optimistic about the state of the UK economy. This confidence amongst consumers has led to a pick up in retail sales, which should help to continue to drive expansion. However, rising house prices and wages may also underpin the Bank of Englandââ,¬â"¢s tightening bias, as the monetary policy committee foresees inflation risks from brisk borrowing and payroll growth. As a result, sentiment could be impact negatively in coming months if the BOE decide to continue hiking rates.
Previous: The GfK measure of consumer confidence in the UK unexpectedly slipped in November to a negative 7 print from negative 5 as households were slightly pessimistic on everything from their personal future finances, the economic situation in the next year, and the climate for major purchases. It is likely no coincidence that the decline in sentiment came as the Bank of England hiked rates to a five-year high of 5.00 percent. The report was a cause for concern after consumer spending helped fuel economic expansion of 2.7 percent in the third quarter. Nevertheless, slowly rising wages and a resilient housing sector were expected to keep consumption on track.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing (DEC) (15:00 GMT; 10:00 EDT)
Consensus: 57.0
Previous: 58.9
Outlook: The US services industry, the biggest sector in the worldââ,¬â"¢s largest economy, is expected to cool slightly in December. Economists predict the ISMââ,¬â"¢s gauge of service activity will report in at 57.0 compared to Novemberââ,¬â"¢s 58.9 read. There are few indicators that can accurately testify to the strength the sector over the period, but a few key indicators could prove pivotal in forming speculation. The most accessible indicator for evaluating services is the ISMââ,¬â"¢s previously released factory report for the same month. An improvement in the headline figure may say little for actual move of the larger sector, but an increase in orders and production bode well. Moreover, since service-based goods are usually consumed quickly, the jump in consumer confidence and the strong holiday season could have offered some buoyancy to stave off a large decline. Furthermore, while the headline number may draw the marketââ,¬â"¢s attention, the employment component may perk more than a few ears as investors look for the most accurate tool to decipher Friday NFPs.
Previous: Activity at service-based firms accelerated to its fastest pace in six months in November. The non-manufacturing survey conducted by the Institute of Supply Mangers reported at 58.9 to step above Octoberââ,¬â"¢s 57.1 read. The boost was primarily supported by a bound in consumer spirits as Americans responded to the steady labor growth and improvement in energy prices. From the breakdown, a modest rise in both new orders and order back logs could be attributed to domestic demand. Demand from outside the nationââ,¬â"¢s boarders on the other hand cooled as the sub-gauge measuring export booking dropped 5 points. Other interesting changes was the quick rebound in the prices paid component which had steadily contracted in the preceding months; and the employment gauge which advanced only modestly as labor trends stabilize.
John Kicklighter is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.