EUR/USD â�,�“ The start of the New Year has brought with it a reversal to dollar strength.  We have stressed that downside risk is high in EURUSD due to the 5 waves up from 1.1640 to 1.3367.  This weakness then is likely the beginning of a much larger correction of that 5 wave affair.  There are other signals of a reversal, such as last monthâ�,��"�s doji candle.  Major support is not until the June high at 1.2976.  Short term support is at the 12/18 low at 1.3051.  1.3145 is initial resistance.

USD/JPY â�,�“ The USDJPY is right at the resistance line drawn off of 121.38 and 119.87.  Price broken through yesterday intraday but closed below it.  This is the third test of that line â�,�“ and third test of support or resistance is often the break.  The pair hasnâ�,��"�t budged today.  Initial support is at the 10 day SMA (currently at 118.88).  A daily close below there would cloud the bullish picture.

GBP/USD â�,�“ Cable is leading the way as far as dollar strength goes.  The pair broke below the 12/18 low this morning and it is trading just above it right now (1.9432).  A sustained break below 1.9432 targets the 11/10 high at 1.9178.  The decline from 1.9749 is equal to the decline from 1.9846 to 1.9432 at 1.9334.  So, 1.9334 could be support as well.  Initial resistance is 1.9480.

USD/CHF â�,�“ Due to â�,��"the 5 wave advance from 1.1878 to 1.2271â�,�¦the larger trend may have turned up and an important low may be in place at 1.1878.â�,�  This was from two days ago and the blast through 1.2271 seems to confirm our medium term bullish bias.  The rally today has stalled at the 50% of 1.2769-1.1878 at 1.2324.  A pullback near term looks reasonable given that 240 minute RSI is in overbought territory.  1.2239 is initial support.  Resistance above todayâ�,��"�s high (1.2326) is the 200 day SMA at 1.2391.

USD/CAD â�,�“ Focus remains on the 4/3 high at 1.1771, which is now just 30 pips away.  The pace of the advance has increased significantly, which has led to overbought daily oscillators (of courseâ�,�¦.overbought itself doesnâ�,��"�t mean muchâ�,�¦we need to see the oscillators decrease into neutral territory before any signal is given).  Initial support is at the 12/29 high at 1.1667.                     

AUD/USD â�,�“ The decline from .7979 is convincing and the next support area is the 12/15 low at .7778.  Bearish evidence includes the decline below both the 10 and 20 day SMAs today.  The bearish divergence that preceded this decline along with 5 waves up from .7414 grants confidence to the bearish case.

NZD/USD â�,�“ We mentioned yesterday that â�,��"daily RSI declined below 70 â�,�“ which could signal the beginning of a deeper decline.â�,�  Kiwi has plummeted today although the pair may be at short term support at .6970 â�,�“ which is a trendline drawn off of the 11/15 and 11/28 lows.  A break there though may give way to the confluence of the 23.6% fibo of .5927-.7096 / 12/6 low at .6814/21.  RSI is turning up from below 30 on the hourly, so this decline may give way to some consolidation before another test of .6970.  Former support is now resistance, most notably .7022.