Euro-zone Producer Price Index (NOV) (10:00GMT; 5:00EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: 0.1% 4.3%
Previous: 0.0% 4.0%
Outlook: Inflation across the Euro-Zone measured at the factory gate is expected to pick up to a more aggressive annual rate of growth in November at 4.3 percent. Meanwhile, the monthly rate is anticipated to rise a more tepid 0.1 percent. Estimates for the regionâ,"s pressure gauge are derived from the PPI performance of the groupâ,"s largest economies, and given Germanyâ,"s annualized climb to 4.7 percent from 4.6 percent, it is even more likely that the broader Euro-zone figure will gain as well. The German figure reflected a 10.6 percent rise in electricity costs, a 19.1 percent jump in natural gas prices, and a 31.1 percent surge in non-iron metal prices from a year earlier. Faster economic growth throughout the Euro-zone has given companies further scope to pass on these increased costs. This will likely be of concern to the European Central Bank, which still maintains a tightening bias as they consider rates to still be â,"lowâ, and policy to be â,"accommodative.â,
Previous: Producer prices in the Euro-zone stagnated in October as continually weak energy prices offset jumps in intermediate good prices. The annual rate of PPI eased to 4.0 percent, the lowest in more than a year. The data indicated that inflation may not be in the pipeline for Euro-zone, but had little effect on the European Central Bankâ,"s determination to tightening monetary policy in December, as the highly transparent monetary official, ECB President Trichet, frequently fell back on his â,"strongly vigilantâ, over the course of the fourth quarter of 2006 â,“ a term that is now almost synonymous with a rate hike.
Canadian Employment (DEC) (12:00 GMT; 07:00 EDT)
(Change) (Unemployment Rate)
Consensus: 15.0K 6.3%
Previous: 22.4K 6.3%
Outlook: Canadian firms are predicted to have taken on an additional 15,000 new workers in December, extending positive employment growth to a four-month trend. However, another addition may not automatically fuel optimism. In the past few reports, much of the improvement in employment has fallen to part-time positions while employers look to shed more full-timers. Another factor playing into the overall feel of the data is in what sectors are companies hiring. In November both the manufacturing and transportation industries filled out their ranks. Factories have been and will be of particular interest as the manufacturing sector continues to suffer from a relatively expensive currency and easing demand from the United States. Policy makers and market participants will tune into Canadaâ,"s labor record to forecast whether consumer confidence and spending can sustain growth through domestic sources while unreliable export markets find their pace.
Previous: More jobs were added to the Canadian economy than had been expected in November, leading policy makers to call the downturn in the economy to be temporary. For the period, 22,400 Canadians found jobs in the manufacturing professional services and transportation sectors. The most encouraging improvement in labor came from factories which took on 13,200 new hires. This is somewhat of a turn around for the sector which has shed 72,000 jobs in the last 12 months in order to make up for a marked drop in export demand. Breaking the statistics up geographically, a few other statistics were interesting. In the wake of correcting energy prices, Alberta companies were still taking on more workers to the tune of 9,800 new positions. Further, Ontario one of the biggest regions and the nationâ,"s auto center picked up 19,100 new workers. While the positive number was welcome, there was still trepidation among economists in supporting a turn around in Canadaâ,"s economy. The entire increase in employment was based on a 40,500 increase in part-time positions. Furthermore, average hourly wages eased to 2.9 percent annual growth from 3.1 percent the month before.
US Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (DEC) (13:30GMT; 8:30EST)
Consensus: 105K
Previous: 132K
Outlook: American companies are anticipated to have slowed hiring in December, as the change in non-farm payrolls is expected to post at 100,000, down from Novemberâ,"s gain of 132,000. A number of factors do not bode well for the December reading, as the ADP employment report dropped 40,000 for the same month, the first negative reading since April 2003. This suggests the potential for a dismal NFP report, as the last negative ADP figure precluded a 68,000 NFP drop. Furthermore, the December ADP reading was the weakest since March 2003, when payrolls plunged 199,000. Meanwhile, the employment component of ISM manufacturing for December held below the 50 level (signaling contraction) for the second month in a row. While the NFP report may not show such a significant downturn this month, the general sentiment is likely to show that the labor market is weakening.
Previous: American employers took on a net 132,000 new hires in November, much better than the 100,000 expected by economists. The employment component of the ISM figures for the same month proved correct in their predictive ability of the NFP release, as services added workers while factories shed their ranks. Manufacturers cut 40,000 people from their staff while construction firms dropped 29,000. On the other hand, service-based firms increased their employment records with a 172,000 person pick up following the previous months 141,000. One detriment to the numbers however was the downward revision to the previous month's 92,000 to 79,000. Nevertheless, the dollar surged on the day of the release as the report as a whole was generally perceived as bullish for the labor market.
Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (DEC) (15:00 GMT; 10:00 EDT)
Consensus: 49.5
Previous: 52.8
Outlook: Canadian business and government spending in is expected to contract in December. Predicted to print a sub-growth 49.5 read, it would be the first such drop in a year. Predictions of the disappointing turn come predominately from notable trends in factory activity. Related indicators cluing into business trends are lagging but consistent in their overall direction. Domestic spending has dried up in recent months to withdraw demand. Retail sales in October dropped 0.7 percent following a 1.2 percent contraction while activity at wholesalers has cooled 0.2 percent on the back of a 1.8 percent easing. Conversely, weak demand from exporters should play the bigger part. The most recent trade report printed a C$3.78 billion surplus, a three month low and far cry from the consistent C$6 billion-plus figures seen in the end of 2005. Global demand for Canadian goods has floundered in the past half year. After a four-year long rally, the level of the local currency has eroded the competitiveness of Canadian produced goods. This is particularly true for trade with the US, which accounts for nearly four-fifths of all exports. With the exchange rate still near a 28-year high, the recent downturn in US growth has leveraged additional burden on demand. Another feel for the ties between Canada and the US, the expected contraction in the Ivey read seems a delayed reaction to the ISM dip in November. If manufacturing fails to turn around on lower input costs and a easing currency, the â,˜mildâ," slowdown described by BoC Governor David Dodge could progress.
Previous: The Ivey business schoolsâ," measure of business activity unexpectedly cooled more than expected in November. Though still above the key 50 level, the 52.8 read for the period marks the lowest level for the indicator in 11 months. From the breakdown in the index, every one of the four components slipped to a recent historical low. The inventories figures submerged below the contractionary/expansionary 50 figure while supplier deliveries plunged even further below the pivotal number. More interesting, the prices sub-gauge slipped to 55.2 suggesting depressed commodity prices are seeping into the business community. Also, employment fell to a new low 53.4. In comparison to the steady increase in hiring reported by Statistics Canada, the second consecutive contraction in the jobs component may underlie a prevailing trend.
John Kicklighter is a Currency Strategist at FXCM.