EUR/USD – We maintain that the decline from 1.3296 is impulsive and the fact that we can count 5 waves from 1.1640 to 1.3367 favors a major turn lower.  A break below 1.2865 targets the next bearish target at 1.2708 (38.2% of 1.1640-1.3367).  The rally from 1.2865 is choppy and looks corrective.  Fibo resistance begins at the 38.2% of 1.3296-1.2865 at 1.3028.  The early morning rally came within pips of the Fibonacci level.  Former support at the 12/18 low of 1.3051 is additional resistance.  A rally above 1.3051 clouds the bearish picture and suggests greater bullish potential.

USD/JPY – We still maintain our position regarding the longer term implications from the 13 month inverse head and shoulders pattern.  A measured objective is at 128.67 – which is where the advance from 108.96 would equal the advance from 101.67 to 121.38.  The pair continues to make higher highs.  A measured objective lies at 123.21, which is where the 114.42-119.67 rally would equal the rally from 117.97.  The pair is at a short term support line right now.  A break below this support line may see a dip to fibo support at the 23.6% of 117.97-121.78 at 120.88.

GBP/USD – Our analysis in the last week has stated that “price is expected to exceed 1.9846 before a major correction takes place.”  This is indeed what has happened, so be on the lookout for a reversal lower.  5 waves up from 1.7046 and 5 waves up in the larger 5th wave position from 1.8090 suggest that a major turn lower is upon us.  The psychological 2.0000 figure bears watching.  The 1991 and 1992 highs were at 2.0045 and 2.0100. 

USD/CHF – The USDCHF has declined in what could be a 4th wave correction.  As long as 1.2271 holds, the bias remains bullish.  Support prior to 1.2271 is the 38.2% fibo of 1.2110-1.2546 at 1.2379 and the 50% at 1.2328.  A break above 1.2546 exposes the next bullish target at the 1.618 extension of 1.2271 – 1.1878 / 1.2110 at 1.2746.

USD/CAD – The USDCAD is very close to our measured objectives.  The 50% of 1.2731-1.0927 is at 1.1830 and the pair has rallied just above there this morning.  The 1.618% extension of 1.0927-1.1456 / 1.1028 is at 1.1883 and the pair is currently testing potential channel resistance (see below).  This area – 1.1830 to 1.1883 is an ideal topping area for the USDCAD before the pair resumes its longer term downtrend to below 1.0927.  Former resistance at 1.1800 is now initial support.  A drop below 1.1644 would grant confidence the bearish case.

AUD/USD – The AUDUSD is coming up on resistance from the 12/8 high at .7929.  The extent of the rally from .7759 strongly suggests that the next 5 wave advance is already in the works.  As such, the 3 year resisting line is expected to give way.  That line is just below the 1/3 high (.7979).  .7858 is initial support.  

NZD/USD – Kiwi has held above the 7 month trendline and broke above .6970 this morning – (last week’s high).  The rally from .6840 may be a series of 1 and 2 waves rather than a correction of weakness.  This looks like the case as the pair had little trouble taking out the .7000 figure.  The 78.6% of .7096-.6840 at .7041 is still potential resistance.  Former resistance at .6974 is now support.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.