No Denying the Blue Chips
With earnings season in full bloom and many of the reports positive, the futures were sharply higher before the open, particularly on Nasdaq, and they gapped up on the opening, consolidated for nearly an hour, and then ran hard, but at that point the indices reached their morning highs and consolidated for a couple more hours through lunch. The blue chips took off in the afternoon with the S&P and Dow making new multi-year and all-time highs, respectively, but the NDX continued to move sideways in a bullish flagging formation. However, it did not break out, with at least 4-5 attempts failing to confirm the new highs on the S&P and Dow, and of course that’s a concern.
Net on the day though, it was a very positive session with the Dow up nearly 88, the S&P 500 more than 12, and the Nasdaq 100 29 Ã,¼. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) gained nearly 6.
The technicals confirmed the positive day with a strong performance, advance-declines 23 to 10 positive on New York, and better than 2 to 1 on Nasdaq. But the up/down volume was the story today, positive in New York by nearly 3 Ã,½ to 1 on total volume of more than 1.5 billion. Nasdaq traded more than 2.1 billion with about a 5 to 1 positive ratio. So another very solid session for the indices today.
TheTechTrader.com board was mostly mixed, as it comprises chiefly Nasdaq stocks, but there were some outstanding gainers. Portfolio position Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN) had a late rush, closing at 42, a new all-time high, up 1.95. Former Chart of the Week OSI Systems (OSIS) broke out and closed at 22.09, up 1.35.
Other stocks of note, GIGM advanced 44 cents on more than 2 million, portfolio position Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) jumped 89 cents, the Qs (QQQQ) were up 72 cents, Qiao Xing Universal Telephone (XING) advanced 41 cents, Sigma Designs (SIGM) 30 cents, and Gmarket (GMKT) up 37 cents,but more than 1.60 off the morning spike lows.
On the downside there were no point-plus losers, but Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) gave back 65 cents, Fuel Tech (FTEK) 55 cents, Mamma.com (MAMA) 49 cents and HOKU 44 cents.
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, there’s no denying the blue chips, as the S&P 500 went to new six-year highs and the Dow closed at a new all-time high. But the Nasdaq however is far from its high, closing at 1802.30, with this year’s high up around the 1848 area. So a long way to go to confirm the new highs on the S&P and Dow. In addition the VIX and VXN have pulled back to near historical lows, and that is obviously a bearish indicator.
So, some concern here with negative divergences, and various other indicators still indicating that the market could be vulnerable.
However, the trend is your friend, and the trend is still up and until we get solid evidence that it’s decisively been broken .
Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.
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