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Late Bear-Flag Formations Leaves Market Vulnerable to Further Declines
By Harry Boxer | Published  01/29/2007 | Stocks | Unrated
Late Bear-Flag Formations Leaves Market Vulnerable to Further Declines

We had a bit of volatility today, but net on the day at the end of the day the indices were close to the zero line.

The day started out with a move down. They backed and filled, and then they tested support successfully and rallied strongly, particularly on the Nasdaq 100 whose rally took out Friday afternoon’s high and tested Friday morning’s session high, topping it slightly. At that point the S&P did not break out & failed to confirm, only making a slightly new high for the day but not taking out Friday’s highs and the indices then sold off sharply to the lows for the day, holding the lows on the Nasdaq 100, while the S&P 500 made substantially lower lows at that point.

The rest of the day was spent moving back up in a bear-flag like patterns, and the indices closed rather weakly. The Dow at the end of the day was up 3.76 and the Nasdaq 100 up 2.11, although substantially off the earlier highs. The S&P 500 was down 1.53, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) down 2.55.

The technicals were slightly positive today with advance-declines higher by 231 issues on the NYSE, and higher by more than 500 issues on Nasdaq, almost 3 to 2 there. Up/down volume was 11 to 8 positive on Nasdaq with just under 2 billion traded, and New York was just under 8 to 7 negative with just over 1 Ã,½ billion traded.

TheTechTrader.com board was mostly narrowly mixed, except for several issues, and most of them were to the upside. The leader by far today was Sigma Designs (SIGM), recommended by another service. The stock jumped dramatically, gaining more than 3 points at one point, closing up 2.67 on 2.6 million. That’s substantial volume for the stock.

Other stocks of note, recent Chart of the Week and former portfolio position Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN) advanced another 2.07 today and closed at 47. Chindex (CHDX) was up 1.26, touching a new all-time high earlier in the session before closing at 25. TRID was up 1.01 today.

Other stocks of note, Qiao Xing Universal Telephone (XING) advanced 83 cents and not far from its multi-year high. Former Chart of the Week Radio Shack (RSH) broke a key 15-month resistance level and closed at 20.82, up 69 cents.

Portfolio position China GrenTech (GRRF) snapped back 50 cents, Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) snapped back 61 cents, and portfolio position Captaris (CAPA) broke out to a new six-year high today, up 36 cents.

Telestone Technologies (TSTC) was up 57 cents, Global Sources (GSOL) 32 cents, Fuel Tech (FTEK) 24 cents and Chinadotcom 25 cents.

On the downside, there were just small fractional losses. Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) fell 48 cents, and Rambus (RMBS) 71 cents.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the recent downtrend in the Nasdaq 100 continued, and the pullback in the S&P 500 did as well. Friday’s lows were not taken out, but severely tested, and the late bear flag formation leaves the market in a vulnerable position for further declines tomorrow.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.