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FOMC Triggers Rally
By Harry Boxer | Published  01/31/2007 | Stocks | Unrated
FOMC Triggers Rally

The indices had a very strong session, particularly post FOMC announcement, at which they left rates unchanged, but the market apparently liked what they had to say, as their post-announcement comments spurred the market higher.

The day started out with a move down that severely tested support on the NDX, but held at a higher level on the S&P 500. That spurred a sharp morning rally that took them back to test Monday’s highs on the NDX and new highs on the SPX. An orderly multi-hour pullback/consolidation took place just before the FOMC meeting, as is normally the case, and then the markets rocketed higher.

Only a late 20-minute pullback brought them off the highs, but net on the day the Dow tagged a new all-time high at 12,657, closing at 12,621, up more than 98. The S&P 500 tagged a new six-year high, getting as high as 1441.61, closing at 1438.24, up 9.42.

The Nasdaq 100 had a strong session, despite the fact that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was actually down on the session. The NDX was up 14 Ã,½,but closed about 6 points off the high it reached just 20 minutes before the close.

But the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was down most of the session, closing down 1.50, although it was down dramatically earlier close to 10 points in the morning.

Technicals were positive by about 2 to 1 on New York on advance-declines and by about 17 to 13 on Nasdaq. The Up/down volume was about 2 Ã,½ to 1 positive on New York on about 1 2/3 billion traded. Nasdaq was a little less than 2 to 1 positive, but total volume was more than 2.1 billion.

TheTechTrader.com board was narrowly mixed for the most part. There were some outstanding issues on the plus side. Former Chart of the Week OSI Systems (OSIS) broke out to a 3-year high, reaching above 24 before closing at 23.98, up 1.37.

Chart of the Week portfolio position, XIDE, continued its strong rally, and we took advantage of it by exiting into the close at 7.20, with a 30% gain this week in three days.

Fuel Tech (FTEK) soared to a new all-time high at 28.79 and closed right there, up 1.13. The US Oil Fund (USO) oil ETF was up 87 cents today, as oil continued its sharp snapback rally.

Other stocks of note, Gigamedia (GIGM) advanced 70 cents, Gmarket (GMKT) snapped back 38 cents, and Sigma Designs (SIGM) was up 47 cents. Former Chart of the Week Radio Shack (RSH) was up 24 cents, tagging a new 52-week high.

On the downside, loss leaders were mostly among the Chinese stocks, as Chindex (CHDX) dropped 1.96, Fuwei Films (FFHL) down 1.44 and Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN) off 1.11.

Other losses of note in that sector, ASIA was down 52 cents, Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) down 81 cents, Global Sources (GSOL) 82 cents, China GrenTech (GRRF) 43 cents, and Qiao Xing Universal Telephone (XING) down 44 cents.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, an important short-term breakout occurred today after the FOMC announcement in that the NDX broke out above a 3 Ã,½-day consolidation pattern, which as we look back at it turned out to be a mini base. The important factor, however, was that the S&P followed through as well, sharply so. It took out the Jan 25 high, and set a new six-year high, with the Dow also breaking out to new all-time highs.

Often after the FOMC meeting and subsequent rally we’ll see a turnaround and the true trend will emerge, so we’re keeping a cautious eye out and will observe tomorrow to see if the trend indeed continues or reverses and heads the other way.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.