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Diverging Patterns as Blue Chips Lead NDX
By Harry Boxer | Published  02/1/2007 | Stocks | Unrated
Diverging Patterns as Blue Chips Lead NDX

The markets had a positive session except for the NDX, which closed slightly lower. The day started off with a gap up on the Nasdaq 100, which led the market early on, as the NDX soared through 1800, getting up to as high as nearly 1807. The S&P 500 immediately went to new six-year highs at 1444.

But the NDX sold off sharply, fed by the SMH and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX), which pulled back quickly. The NDX dropped from nearly 1807 to 1785 and change, a 21-point drop very quickly in the morning. The next several hours were spent bouncing above support on the NDX. The S&P & Dow, however, held up much better. They did have a rally in mid afternoon that broke the S&P and Dow out, the Dow reaching more new all-time highs and the S&P more new six-year highs. But the NDX failed to take back as much as 50 percent of the morning losses.

At the end of the day the NDX pulled back sharply, the S&P faded a little bit, but they closed positively on the blue chips and negatively on the NDX.

The Dow was up 52, the S&P 7 Ã,¾, the NDX down 0.83, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) up 3.62, preventing the NDX from steeper losses.

The technicals were more positive on New York, by 24 to 9 on advance-declines, than they were on Nasdaq, which was 19 to 10.

Up/down volume was 3 to 1 positive on New York, with more than 1 2/3 billion traded. Nasdaq traded just under 2.2 billion, with an 11 to 10 negative plurality.

TheTechTrader.com board was mixed with some outstanding gainers. Portfolio position Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) advanced nearly 2 on 1.6 million. Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) was up 1.97 on 2 million shares. Research Frontiers, a stock we watched today, advanced 2 on 1 Ã,¾ million shares on some positive news.

Rochester Medical (ROCM) was up 1.45 to 16.68, and Fuel Systems (FSYS) was up 1.63 to 23.83.

Other stocks of note, Syntax-Brillian (BRLC) was up 80 cents on just under 5 million, Chindex (CHDX) 70 cents, American Oriental Bioengineering (AOB) 60 cents, Sigma Designs (SIGM) 70 cents, tagging 25, and Radio Shack (RSH) was up 44 cents to a new 52-week high.

On the downside, Fuel Tech (FTEK) dropped 79 cents, China GrenTech (GRRF) 34 cents, OSI Systems (OSIS) 33 cents and Simpletech (STEC) 44 cents.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, two distinct patterns exist, with the NDX continuing to trail ,while the S&P and Dow are making new highs. The NDX need to get above 1810 just to break out of the multi-week congestion range it’s in, and it’s still far from the early January highs reached up near 1847-48. So a long way to go for the NDX, and as a result, a negative divergence exists.

We’ll see what that means over the next few days, as to whether the blue chips can pull the NDX out of its doldrums or whether pressure on the NDX will continue and eventually drag the blue chips lower.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.