EUR/USD – If the decline from 1.3367 is to trace out 5 waves, then the 5th wave down needs to start right now. The rally from 1.2876 to 1.3055 is 179 pips, which is nearly identical to the 1.2865-1.3055 rally (190 pips). The equal legs suggests that the rally from 1.2865 could be a 4th wave correction. The first indication that a 5th wave down was in progress would be a decline below 1.2982. Measured support on a break below 1.2865 is where wave 1 would equal wave 5 at 1.2739 (1.3055 – (1.3367-1.3051). 1.3055 needs to hold for the bearish scenario to play out.

USD/JPY – The USDJPY is turning up from the 50% fibo of 117.97-122.21 at 120.08. A long term measured objective is at 128.67 – which is where the advance from 108.96 would equal the advance from 101.67 to 121.38. We have a shorter term measured objective at 123.21, which is where the rally from 117.97 would equal the 114.42-119.67 rally. 120.10 is support.

GBP/USD – Yesterday’s rally reversed just shy of the 61.8% of 1.9915-1.9481 at 1.9751. Weakness from 1.9915 may b just the beginning of a much larger decline. Projected support is not until where the decline from 1.9740 equals the 1.9915-1.9482 decline at 1.9307. 1.9740 must hold for the bearish structure to remain intact.

USD/CHF – The USDCHF turned lower following the 5th wave rally to 1.2575. Expectations are for a 3 wave correction. A break below 1.2376 conforms that a short term top is in place. Fibonacci support begins at the 38.2% of 1.1880-1.2575 at 1.2309. Since this weakness is likely the beginning of a larger 2nd wave lower, expect a deeper retracement to challenge the 61.8% at 1.2146.

USD/CAD – The USDCAD continues to trade sideways at the top of its yearly range. The 1.618% extension of 1.0927-1.1456 / 1.1028 is at 1.1883. 1.1883 is an ideal topping area for the USDCAD before the pair resumes its longer term downtrend to below 1.0927. The potential 2+ year bearish channel reinforces resistance at the current juncture. The topping scenario is best served by one more rally to above 1.1850 in order to complete 5 small waves from 1.1644. A decline below 1.1644 suggests that the decline has already started.

AUD/USD – The initial rally off of the low at .7698 was retraced to .7715. A rally above .7773 would complete a 3 wave correction and give scope to additional weakness. Measured resistance is where the rally from .7715 would equal the .7698 to .7773 rally – at .7791. This is also where the 38.2% retracement of .7941-.7698 comes in. A decline below .7698 suggests that the next leg down is already in progress.

NZD/USD – Kiwi is nearing .6778, which is where the decline from .7034 would equal the .7096-.6840 decline. This measured objective intersects with the 11/29 and 11/30 lows. If projected support fails, then the decline may extend to the 161.8% extension at .6619. Former support (now resistance) at .6840 is key to the bearish case.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.