EUR/USD – It looks like the 5th wave down (in a 5 wave bearish sequence that began at 1.3367) started at 1.3066. We are looking for a low to be made below 1.2865, which would be followed by a rally that will retrace a portion of the decline from 1.3367. Measured objectives are centered near 1.2750. The 61.8% extension of 1.3367-1.2865 / 1.3066 is at 1.2756 and the level where wave 5 would equal wave 1 is at 1.2747. Only a rally above 1.3066 (Friday’s) high negates the near term bearish structure. A decline below 1.2865 satisfies minimum expectations for a 5th wave down.

USD/JPY – The USDJPY may be tracing out a 3 wave zigzag correction. The decline from 122.21 to 120.10 would be the first of that 3 wave correction (wave A) and the bounce to 121.38 would be the second wave (wave B). A third wave (wave C) decline could extend to 119.26, which is where waves A and C would be equal. 119.26 is also the 38.2% of 114.43-122.21. Price is slipping below the 20 day SMA today, which has held as support since early December. 121.38 needs to hold in this case.

GBP/USD – Cable’s rally was rejected at the 61.8% fibo of 1.9915-1.9482 at 1.9750 on Friday and price has fallen nearly 200 pips since 1.9750. The decline from 1.9750 is the either a 3rd wave down or a C wave down. In either case, price expected to fall below 1.9482 before a concerted rally attempt takes place. A measured objective for the end of this 3rd (or C) wave is 1.9316, which is where the decline from 1.9750 would equal the 1.9915-1.9482 decline. Near term resistance is at the 2/2 low at 1.9636.

USD/CHF – A wave 4 correction may have ended at 1.2377 on Friday. A break above 1.2575 would confirm that the decline to 1.2377 was indeed corrective and that a wave 5 was underway. Wave 5 (beginning at 1.2377) would equal wave 1 (1.1878-1.2274) at 1.2769 (very close to the 10/13/2006 high at 1.2773). Similar to the EURUSD (but the inverse), a rally above 1.2575 satisfies minimum expectations for wave 5.

USD/CAD – The USDCAD finally pushed above the 1.1850 level on Friday. The 1.618% extension of 1.0927-1.1456 / 1.1028 is at 1.1883. 1.1883 is an ideal topping area for the USDCAD before the pair resumes its longer term downtrend to below 1.0927. The potential 2+ year bearish channel reinforces resistance at the current juncture. A rally much above 1.1883 gives scope to a test of the psychological 1.2000 level. A decline below 1.1737 would suggests that the pair has topped.

AUD/USD – The AUDUSD appears to be forming a short term triangle. There are 5 waves within the triangle, so a thrust lower should come soon. A decline below .7698 would indicate that the thrust lower had started and focus would then shift to the 11/13/2006 low at .7614. A rally above .7773 negates the triangle possibility.

NZD/USD – Kiwi bounced at .6778, which is where the decline from .7034 equaled the .7096-.6840 decline. If .6778 fails to hold, then projected support is at the 161.8% extension at .6619. Resistance is at today’s reaction high at .6868. Daily oscillators are bearish with CCI below -100. A cross above -100 would indicate a reversal opportunity.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.