EUR/USD – We are still looking for a low to be made below 1.2865, which would be followed by a rally that will retrace a portion of the decline from 1.3367. 1.3066 has held as resistance so the bearish structure remains intact. Measured objectives are centered near 1.2750. The 61.8% extension of 1.3367-1.2865 / 1.3066 is at 1.2756 and the level where wave 5 would equal wave 1 is at 1.2747. Remember that a decline below 1.2865 satisfies minimum expectations for a 5th wave down. Only a rally above 1.3066 (Friday’s) high suggests greater bullish potential.

USD/JPY – The break above 121.38 brings 122.21 back in focus as the longer-term implications from the break of the 8-year trendline are back at the forefront. A break above 122.21 exposes a measured objective at 123.21, which is where the 114.42-119.67 rally would equal the rally from 117.97. In the short term, it looks like there are 5 waves up from 119.96 so a corrective decline is probable. In the event of a decline, look for initial support at the 38.2% of 119.96-121.66 at 121.01. This is also the 4th wave of one lesser degree (2/8 low).

GBP/USD – Our focus remains for a test of 1.9307, which is where the decline from 1.9750 would equal the 1.9915-1.9482 decline. The decline below last week’s low at 1.9482 bolsters the bearish case as does the break below a supporting trendline drawn off of the 10/16/2006, 11/17/2006, and 1/9 lows. A decline to 1.9307 would possible complete an a-b-c correction but an extension of weakness to below 1.9261 would suggest that a much deeper decline was underway. Near term, it is possible to count 5 waves down from 1.9732 so a countertrend rally could challenge fibo resistance, which begins at the 38.2% of 1.9732-1.9455 at 1.9561.

USD/CHF – The USDCHF is in the exact same position as the euro but as the inverse. The pair has held the 1.2375 level after testing it 3 times since 1/23. The shelf of support has led to a rally in what may be the final 5th wave to complete a 5 wave sequence from 1.1878. The next bullish target is the 1.618 extension of 1.2271 – 1.1878 / 1.2110 at 1.2746. 1.2427 is initial support and price above there warrants an aggressive bullish stance. Only a decline below 1.2375 negates the bullish wave implications. Price back above the 20 day SMA favors bulls as well.

USD/CAD – Friday’s turn lower likely marks the resumption of the long term downtrend. Long term focus is no to below 1.0927. Price is below the 20 day SMA and the pair has broken below the 2/1 low at 1.1735. A decline below 1.1644 confirms that the bear is back. The bounce from 1.1713 is most likely a small degree 4th wave that will challenge the 38.2% of 1.1850-1.1713 at 1.1765 before completing its 5th wave to below 1.1713.

AUD/USD – The a-b-c correction that we speculated was unfolding appears to have ended at .7827 and the decline below the top of wave a at .7773 confirms the bearish bias going forward. Support going forward is at the 1/31 low at .7698 of which a break exposes the 11/13/2006 low at .7614. Keep in mind that the longer term triangle (2 years long) also favors the downside.

NZD/USD – We have concentrated recently on the fact that “Kiwi bounced from where the .7038 decline equals the .7099-.6841 decline. As such, we are left with just a 3 wave correction of equal legs from .7099. This structure is suggestive of a bottoming in NZDUSD (as long as .6769 holds).” A bullish outcome remains possible as long as .6769 holds. A rally through .6896 would warrant a bullish bias in Kiwi.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.