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Is the Stock Market Rally Tiring?
By Harry Boxer | Published  07/13/2005 | Stocks | Unrated
Is the Stock Market Rally Tiring?

The indices had another very resilient performance, but the underpinnings of today's market were rather poor and indicate perhaps a tired market.  The day started out with a slight bump to the upside and then a quick sell-off that held right at support at 1550 NDX and 1220 S&P.  For the rest of the day they held those levels, but in the morning after the initial test the market had a sharp upswing that fell short of the earlier highs and then for several hours meandered sideways in a rather narrow range.  An afternoon rally took them to nominal new highs, which failed and rolled over into the close.

Net on the day the Dow was up 43 1/2, the S&P up 1, the NDX 2 and the SOX up also 2.

But the underlying technicals, as indicated earlier, were poor.  There were more than 500 more decliners than advancers on New York and 350 more decliners on Nasdaq, despite the fact that all the indices were up today.

Up/down volume was flat on New York on total volume of 1 1/3 billion.  Nasdaq traded about 1 1/2 billion, with a 3 to 2 positive ratio, most of that coming in the last hour.

TheTechTrader.com board was very narrowly mixed, with a few issues changed by more than a point, but all to the downside.  World Poker Tour (WPTE), on confirmation that the takeover bid had expired, dropped another 1.75 today and is now off more than 9 points from its peak a few days ago.  Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN), after a strong run this week, gave back 1.17 on more than 6 million shares.

Other stocks of note on the downside, Georesources (GEOI) was down 73 cents and Able Energy (ABLE) down 55 cents in the junior energy sector.  Among alternative energy stocks DayStar Technologies (DSTI) was down 44 cents and Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) down 22 cents.  Fuelcell Energy (FCEL) was down 34 cents.

In addition, JAMDAT Mobile (JMDT) was off 75 cents and Forward Industries (FORD) down 58 cents.

On the plus side there were mostly fractional gains.  Kendle International (KNDL) reached a new multi-year high at 17 before backing off into the close, but was up 78 cents on the day.

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) had a strong day in the alternative energy group despite the losses of some other stocks in that area.  It was up 30 cents on 2.2 million.  CryptoLogic (CRYP) snapped back from recent losses by 26 cents.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices appear to have created coil-type patterns today and held very nicely near the upper range of recent rally without giving back too much.

Levels to watch: 1560 on the upside and 1550 on the downside.  A break either way could send the market in a more emphatic move.

S&P 500 levels are 1225 and 1220.  A break below 1550 and 1220 in my opinion will send the markets lower for the next couple days in a deeper retracement.

To say the least the market is overdue for that, and today's underlying technicals perhaps reveal a tired market that may be at or near an imminent short-term top.

Good trading!

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a FREE 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a Free 30-Day Trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.