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Odom & Frey Weekly Futures and Options Views
By Derek Frey | Published  02/26/2007 | Futures , Options | Unrated
Odom & Frey Weekly Futures and Options Views

Financials
Stocks: The stock market spend the week pulling back but a quick look at the daily chart shows that we have seen this type of pullback many times in the past 9 months. We are nearing trendline support at about 12,600 on the March Dow futures. Buy the support level with a stop and reverse near 12,550.

Bonds: Bonds fell a bit short of our 112 objective this week but we do expect to see them reach that point early this coming week. We have little if any major overhead resistance until we reach 113 so the path of least resistance remains up.

Energy
Crude oil did in fact try to push above 62 this week but fell just short. We continue to target a move back to 65 in the coming weeks. It will not be a one way street higher though. We are expecting a sizeable increase in volatility in the energy sector this coming week so be careful. This time of year we always see the refiners switching from winter gas to summer blends and that tends to cause the increase in volatility that we are expecting.

Metals
Metals really took off this past week. Gold rallied above 680 but failed to test 700 yet. We still feel there is more downside risk than upside in the near term so longs need to bring those stops up to lock in the paper gains they are showing. Silver did break through overhead resistance but we have seen more than a few head fakes in silver over the years so be very careful with your long trades this coming week. Copper really broke out of its range and looks as if it will find its way back above 300 before too long. Keep trailing your stops in copper by about 10 points if you can afford the risk.

Grains
Corn ended the week with a double inside day which is not a great sign for the bulls. After breaking out to new highs bulls would have liked to see it close on a new high for the week. Keep your stops at or near 420 on the March contract. Soybeans also ended the week with a pullback. Stops in March beans should be at or near 760. Wheat, like corn, ended the week with a double inside day that coincides with channel resistance so be very careful with long wheat trades in the near term.

Softs
OJ also really took off this week and is trying to retest the old highs. We see more short side trades in OJ in the week ahead then long. The October 2006 gaps still need to be filled and any seasoned trader knows that gaps are always filled sooner or later. Cocoa has consolidated the recent rally and should now be able to push above 1800 and beyond. Look for strong moves in cocoa in the week ahead. Coffee also took of this week and should continue higher in the near term. We are targeting a move above 130 on the May contract over the next few weeks. Sugar should continue to follow crude oil up over the next week. We are expecting the May contract to rally back above 12.00 in the near term. Cotton also joined the party this week and is trying to get some legs. Cotton could rally back to 57.50 if the funds continue to buy.

Meats
Feeder cattle did form the bull flag this week that we were expecting. That pattern should point the way to a continued rally if we can close above 103 on the April contract. Live cattle also consolidated and it to could continue to rally if it can close above 96.50. Lean hogs continue to test trend line support between 66 and 67 we are long the 68 -72 call spread and see this market achieving that objective by April. Bellies had the usual wild correction and after a shake out like that this market is likely to resume the rally. Look for a strong push above 106 this coming week.

Derek Frey is Head Trader at Odom & Frey Futures & Options.

Risk Disclaimer
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options is not suitable for everyone. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.