Sector Spotlight: Autos and Tires
With stocks taking another beating on Monday, we'll continue the diary entries regarding all of the unusual - possibly downright bizarre - quirks within the wonderful world of industries. Obscure remains the soup du'jour, but if that's where the dependable trends appear to be, then that's where they appear to be.
Care to know three of Monday's survivors? Autos, tires, and soft drinks. The relative strength of both makes a little sense, even if it's a little surprising to see either resist what was otherwise a sellers market.
We've looked at the Dow Jones Automobile Index (DJUSAU) a few times in recent months. While they weren't immune to last week's decline (and were actually in trouble before that), we have to wonder if investors still see these stocks as undervalued opportunities. Either way, we see a couple of potential technical reasons for a little resiliency.
First, take a look at Monday's low at 182. Now, take a look at December's low of 181. Close enough to not be a coincidence? We'd say so. However, there's an additional floor in place this time around. The 200-day moving average line stopped the downtrend on Monday, at least so far -- enough to keep this group in the black.
Don't misunderstand; that's far from a screaming buy signal. However, we always at least want to understand how an industry can shrug off selling that should be crushing its constituents. Worth a look again.
Key Auto Names: Ford (F), Daimler-Chrysler (DMX), General Motors (GM)
Dow Jones Automobile Index (DJUSAU)
Certainly there's a connection component between tires and autos, but only a loose one - at best. So, if you're not interested in car-makers, don't cast out a tire company just because cars use tires.
The fact is the Dow Jones Tire Index (DJUSTR) has almost defiantly been rallying in the face of market weakness. Though these stocks did lose ground on Tuesday, they've since rebounded by 14.4%, and actually managed to hit new multi-year highs on Monday. That's hard to chalk up to a little volatility.
The likely catalyst? We at least partially have to acknowledge that this group can and often does run counter to the overall market - especially when the overall market stinks. However, the chart will also reveal how the 50-day moving average line may have played a role in the upside reversal.
As uncanny as it may seem, even in the shadow of a 100%(+) since July of last year, we think there could be more upside in store for these stocks. While they've been red-hot, they've yet to get spinning out of control and incite a big pullback. If anything, they look like they're still gaining momentum.
Key Tire Companies: Goodyear (GT)
Dow Jones Tire Index (DJUSTR)
Yes, there really is a soft drink index. Dow Jones seems to have one for everything. The Dow Jones Soft Drink Index (DJUSSD) isn't going to win any performance awards. In fact, it may actually be poised for a downside move of its won. However, it made out list today because it managed to close higher - even just a little - on Monday.
The real trick here to an upside reversal we think lies in the 200 day moving average line, which appears to be support for the time being. It's currently at 297. If the index falls under that mark for a couple of days, the part may be over. If not, then the dip may actually be a buying opportunity.
Key Soft Drink Stocks: Pepsico (PEP), Coca-Cola (KO), Cadbury Schweppes (CSG)
Dow Jones Soft Drink Index (DJUSSD)
In the meantime, even if there's really anything to those pockets of strength, the majority of any trade-worthy trends are obviously to the downside. While a monkey could pick a falling sector chart right now, we've tried to narrow down what we feel are the highest-potential bearish chart we could find.
The cyclical stocks look like they've got a decent pullback in the works, if recent history is any indication. After getting a little ahead of itself, the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC) fall sharply last week, and was obliged to keep falling back on Monday. The true 'sell' signal is the cross back under the 50-day average. Assuming the 200-day line is the net likely support line, there's room for 55 mores points of downside before a floor might be met and that assumes the 200-day line could be a floor (and it wasn't even a floor the last time around). A more likely landing will be around 840 when the time comes.
Though the definition of cyclical is subject to a lot of interpretation, some of the bigger names in this index are U.S. Steel (X), John Deere (DE), Sears Holding (SHLD), and Ryder (R), just to name a few.
Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC)
Coal may ring a bell with you. We went bearish on it a couple of weeks ago, and though we saw a little strength immediately afterwards, the downtrend has been revived. As of Monday, the Dow Jones Coal Index (DJUSCL) crossed back under the 50-day average (purple) after finding resistance at its 200-day line (green).
Interestingly, this chart is still one of the few where the 200-day line is pointed lower, and it has been for a while - a testament to the bigger-picture weakness.
There's an added analysis here though. The blue lines on the chart highlight a wedge pattern that is being tested with extreme prejudice. If the lower edge of that triangle buckles, the longer-term downtrend is likely to get jump-started in a hurry, as the chart rapidly drops to the next lower trading range somewhere right around 200. This should be interesting to say the least.
Major Coal Stocks: Arch Coal (ACI), Massey (MEE), Peabody (BTU)
Dow Jones Coal Index (DJUSCL)
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.
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