EUR/USD – Ultimately, we look for the decline that began at 1.3262 to test at least 1.2757. This is where the decline from 1.3262 would equal the 1.3370-1.2865 decline. The major long term supporting trendline intersects with the 1.2700 figure at the end of March. Near term, the rally from 1.3072 to 1.3143 is likely a small degree 4th wave that should roll over from below 1.3143, bringing price under 1.3072 in the next day. The short term bearish target is the 161.8% extension of 1.3262-1.3142 / 1.3215 at 1.3022.

USD/JPY – Given the fact that daily RSI has turned up from below 30 and that daily CCI is turning up from below -100, we are looking for the USDJPY to challenge at least the 38.2% of 121.66-115.15 at 117.63. This Fibonacci level coincides with former congestion. This short term bullish scenario is best served with short term support holding at 116.20. A rally to 117.63 / 118.00 (117.98 is where the rally from 116.20 would equal the 115.15-116.91 rally) would possibly complete a 4th wave correction and give way to another bout of weakness to below 115.15.

GBP/USD – A small degree wave 4 likely ended at 1.9361 last night. 1.9361 is the 38.2% of 1.9655-1.9183 and the correction from 1.9183 is in 3 waves with waves A and C of that correction roughly equal (1.9183-1.9307 = 124 pips : 1.9229-1.9361 = 132 pips). Price should come under 1.9183 with 1.9361 resistance remaining intact. A break below 1.9183 may test the 61.8% of 1.8515-1.9915 at 1.9055. However, a decline below 1.9183 satisfies minimum expectations for the 5th wave. Since GBPUSD is in a wave 5 (compared to EURUSD in a wave 3), expect a correction back to 1.9360 once a wave low is established.

USD/CHF – Little is changed regarding the USDCHF. We still favor the bottoming scenario with risk at 1.2109. The next move of consequence should be in a wave C rally (inverse of EURUSD) to above 1.2575. A push through Friday’s high at 1.2264 bolsters the bullish scenario. Daily CCI has increased from below -100, which signals a reversal (higher).

USD/CAD – The long term bearish bias remains intact. The decline off of the top of the 2 year channel combined with the outside monthly reversal favor the downside. Ultimately the decline from 1.1879 should come under 1.0927 to complete a 5th wave. The rally from 1.1564 has retraced 78.6% of the 1.1879-1.1564 decline in a 2nd wave. The next few weeks should see price come under 1.1564 and possibly even 1.1250-1.1326 – which marks the 138.2% to 161.8% extensions of 1.1879-1.1564 / 1.1761. 1.1880 is critical resistance. A push above, while not expected, targets the 1.2000 figure. Coming under yesterday’s low at 1.1731 bolsters the bearish outlook.

AUD/USD – The AUDUSD wave 4 correction that we wrote about yesterday has extended to the 50% of .7895-.7680 at .7787. Price must remain below .7840 in order to keep the bearish structure intact but the 61.8% at .7812 should provide formidable resistance. The upside looks limited at this point and price should come under .7680 in a 5th wave decline before a larger upward correction takes place.

USD/NZD – Kiwi has also corrected recent weakness from .6720 in a 4th wave. The 38.2% of .7036-.6720 at .6841 has held as resistance and the rally from .6720 is in 3 waves. The pair should roll over from near current price and come under .6720 in a 5th wave decline. If resistance at .6861 fails, then this wave 4 may extend to the 50% at .6878.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.