Today we'll answer a couple of recent reader questions. Remember, if you have a question about trading, technical analysis, or something that would interest other readers, please send them to service@bigtrends.com. You may see them in a future column.
Q: Hey Price, How about an update on the dollar? Thanks.
A: No problem. The last time we looked at the dollar was on May 17. By that point, we had pretty much resigned to the fact that the dollar's multi-year slide had reversed. That hasn't changed between now and then. In fact, since the middle of May, the dollar has actually been on a recovery rampage. So, as slim as the chances were of the dollar weakening then, they're even more slim now. As always, it's easier to show you this with a chart. Let's start with the U.S. dollar/Japanese yen chart. By May 17, the dollar/yen had already broken above the 200 day line (green) as well as resistance (brown), and was pushing at the upper edge of its bullish trading zone (dashed lines). The conversion rate was about 107.80. That level was left in the dust a couple of weeks later - the conversion rate is now 111.97, and had been even higher. So from a bigger picture perspective, it's a pretty good bet that the dollar is on the mend.
U.S. Dollar-Japanese Yen Conversion - Weekly
However, this chart looks a little over-extended to us. The 112 area was where the dollar met resistance in the middle of last year. Plus, the recent rally has been red-hot. We wouldn't be surprised to see this chart pull back a little - maybe even to 108 or so. That shouldn't change the bigger uptrend though.
The dollar/euro chart (which we're not showing) looks basically the same....the dollar's rally has gotten a little bit ahead of itself, so we're looking for it to ease up just a little over the next couple of weeks. Maybe it will dip to 1.25. Then, we think it will be back to work as inflation continues to be contained and interest rates continue to creep up (although we don't see too many more rate hikes in the near future).
By the way, the Rydex Funds company now has a strengthening dollar fund and a weakening dollar fund. They were incepted a couple of months ago. That's not an endorsement of Rydex, nor a recommendation that you trade dollar-based instruments. However, it's a great and easy way to take advantage of a big trend without opening a Forex (currency) account. If we see any other dollar-based funds created, we'll let you know.
Q. Price, This choppy market has really been tough. I've survived it, but I feel like I've been doing more work, and getting fewer results. I'm not naive enough to think the market has changed and I'm the one who's the same - I'm just afraid my frustration has already started to alter my discipline, and soon, my results. Help!
You're not alone, so don't worry about it. This market has been different.....different than it was six months ago. However, it's not an unusual type of market - it's just one of the many varieties of market dynamics. To help make sure you're on track, I'll just reprint the seven point reality check that we run from time to time. Do this assessment, and I'm sure you'll get your focus back......
Mid-Year Reality Check
If you're not satisfied with your trading in the first half of the year (or even if you are satisfied), facing these truths will put you much further along the road to improvement. The trick here is to be honest with yourself. Nobody else has to know your answers, but I do recommend putting your responses down on paper. After all, seeing the reality on paper has a special way creating the necessary change. Ask yourself the following questions:
1) Did I apply a proven trading system to all of my trades?
2) Did I apply a disciplined stop-loss approach to EVERY trade?
3) Did I track my results on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis?
4) Did I review my winners and losers to determine exactly why they were winners or losers?
5) Did I invest in myself or my trading knowledge?
6) Did I find and develop my own ideas, or did I let the media determine what I would focus on?
7) Did I set specific goals that would in turn determine my trading activity?
If you said "YES" to all of these things, then congratulations - you probably did better than about 98 percent of traders. If you said "NO" to three or more of these questions, you probably already know that you're not yet reaching your full potential. But don't worry, since the year's not over yet. I make this challenge to you.....before the end of the day, write down exactly how you're going to turn your no's into yes's. And I can't stress enough, it has to be done today. If you put it off until tomorrow, it will be too easy to put it off again, and so on. Plus, you'll be training yourself to be a procrastinator. If you do it today, you'll be training yourself to be pro-active, and to take action. Your decision to write down this plan before you finish your day is a powerful indication of just how committed you are to trading success.
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.