EUR/USD – The EURUSD continues to range primarily between 1.3100 and 1.3200. The 61.8% of 1.3262-1.3072 at 1.3189 has held (price has tested 1.3200 but backed off). If a 3 wave correction is unfolding from the 3/5 low at 1.3072, then the first and third legs of that correction are equal at 1.3200 (today’s high). Additional resistance is from the 78.6% of 1.3262-1.3072 at 1.3221. The inability of bears to keep EURUSD sub 1.3150 limits confidence in the downside near term but 1.3186-1.3221 should be formidable resistance. 1.3262 must hold in order to maintain a bearish bias.

USD/JPY – The break below 116.91 (just now) reinforces the bearish bias as the entire rally from 115.15 can now be classified as an A-B-C correction. Weakness should continue lower in a 5th wave to below 115.15. Support on a break below the 115.00 figure is the 12/5/2006 low at 114.44. The bearish bias remains strong as long as price holds below 117.79.

GBP/USD – Little has changed regarding Cable. The pair has rolled over from the 50% of 1.9675-1.9182 at 1.9428. It is possible to count a 3 wave correction from 1.9182 (which makes up a 4th wave correction). What we are looking for then is a decline from near current levels to under 1.9182 in a 5th wave decline. A rally above 1.9436 could test the 61.8% of 1.9675-1.9428 at 1.9486.

USD/CHF –The USDCHF is no longer bullish as price has held below the breakout point at 1.2264. Also, a 5 wave decline is evident from 1.2357 to 1.2213, meaning that the larger trend is now down. 1.2264 is now resistance and the next bearish target is the 3/8 low at 1.2159. The pair has come under the 20 day SMA as well as a short term support line drawn off of the 3/5 and 3/8 lows (this reinforces the bearish bias).

USD/CAD – The long term bearish bias remains intact. The decline off of the top of the 2 year channel combined with the outside monthly reversal favor the downside. Ultimately the decline from 1.1879 should come under 1.0927 to complete a 5th wave. The rally from 1.1564 has retraced 78.6% of the 1.1879-1.1564 decline in a 2nd wave. The next few weeks should see price come under 1.1564 and possibly even 1.1250-1.1326 – which marks the 138.2% to 161.8% extensions of 1.1879-1.1564 / 1.1761. 1.1880 is critical resistance. The fact that this decline has yet to accelerate lower and the bullish divergence with RSI on the hourly are both causes for concern and a bounce to 1.1739 or higher is suggested near term by the 5 waves down from 1.1820.

AUD/USD – The AUDUSD is supported by a short term trendline that began on 3/5. The pair may be finishing of a 5 wave rally from .7680. A rally above .7880 would place 5 waves up from .7680 and possibly see a test of the 78.6% of .7950-.7680 at .7892. In this instance, we would be looking for a corrective move lower.

NZD/USD – Kiwi’s rally has stalled at the confluence of the 61.8% of .7126-.6719 / former congestion at .6970/90. In Kiwi’s case, it looks like there are already 5 waves up from the low put in place on 3/6 at .6719. With 5 waves up from .6719, the bigger picture is clouded but we are still looking for at least a test of .6892 as long as .6993 resistance holds.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.