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Five-Day Snapback Rally Ends with Authority
By Harry Boxer | Published  03/13/2007 | Stocks | Unrated
Five-Day Snapback Rally Ends with Authority

The market started the day on a bad note, with sharply lower futures. They opened lower, and did bounce in the first hour in what looked like bear-flag formations, particularly on the S&P 500. They rolled over hard late morning, and for the rest of the day stair-stepped lower, accelerating into the close and closing at the lows for the day going away.

The Dow was down 242.66, just 4 points off the low for the day. The S&P 500 was 28.65, just pennies off the low, and the Nasdaq 100, right at the low, was down 33.94. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was down near 8 today, just pushing 2%.

Advance-declines were horrendous, with 462 up and 2867 down on New York, about a 6 to 1 negative ratio. Up/down volume was much worse, with a more than 16 to 1 negative ratio on New York, with 116 million up and 1.84 billion down on total just under 2 billion.

Nasdaq was nearly as bad, with about a 5 to 1 negative ratio on advance-declines and about an 8 to 1 negative ratio on advancing volume over declining volume, on total volume of just over 2.2 billion.

TheTechTrader.com board was, of course, mostly negative. However, the QID, which is the ProShares UltraShort QQQ ETF, naturally was higher, up 2.30 on 16 Ã,½ million shares traded.

The other stock of note, PRG Schultz International (PRGX) surged past 15 today, closing up 1.26 to 15.09, a new 17-month high.

Fractional gains included Anadigics (ANAD) up 30 cents, BioDelivery Sciences (BSDI) up 23 cents, and Jones Soda (JSDA) up 21 cents but much higher in the morning, tagging 20, closing at 18.88.

On the downside, broker-dealers were extremely negative. Boxer Shorts and Charts of the Week, Bear Stearns (BSC) was down 10.18, Lehman Brothers (LEH) down 4.55, Morgan Stanley (MS) down 3.98, and Continental Airlines (CAL) down 1.75.

Other losses of note, Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) gave back 1.35, the Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN) 2.90 today, Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) 1.20, and NVE Corp. (NVEC) 1.95, along with Sigma Designs (SIGM) 1.34 and Radio Shack (RSH) 1.05.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the 5-day snapback rally which reached a perfect 0.382 Fibonnacci retracement yesterday on the SPX, rolled over with authority, breaking two key levels of support today. It managed to retest that second level late in the session, but backed off again.

A very negative close, very negative technical action.

Right now as it stands the S&P 500 is not far off a retest of the entire pullback lows, and we expect we may see that tomorrow, just about the 4 points lower than where it closed. Nasdaq 100 lows are about 11 points below here, which could also be tested early tomorrow.

Based on the pattern as is, we’re expecting lower prices.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.