Sector Rotation for the Second Quarter |
By Price Headley |
Published
04/12/2007
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Stocks
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Unrated
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Sector Rotation for the Second Quarter
The last few days - and last couple of weeks for that matter - have been a little lethargic for the overall market. Oh, there have been some nice moves to be sure. The major indices are back above the short-term average lines, and well off the lows for the year. But, considering we're basically where we were three weeks ago, the lack of net movement has been somewhat uninspiring.
The thing is, it's not necessarily been that way in every corner of the market. We've actually started to see some major divergences in sector performance -- enough that it would be wise to pay attention to it. Today, we'll dust off the sector performance ranking grid, and add a few of our own comments. This may well serve as a guide (of sorts) during what could otherwise be a sleepy Q2.
Just as a quick reminder, the only intent with this grid is to illustrate relative performance, and whether or not we're seeing persistent trends and/or rotation. It doesn't necessarily mean a certain sector is heading higher or lower.
As usual, the sectors are ranked based on their monthly return, as that may be the most meaningful "bigger picture" trend finder. All the timeframes are important though, as they allow us to see any "then versus now" differences.
As you'll see, there really hasn't been much rotation lately, nor is there any real sign that rotation is currently in the works. Energy, Utilities, Materials, and Telecom have remained leaders for a year, while the Industrials, Financials, and Technology stocks have been stuck at the bottom.
Sector Performance Ranking - One Month
A pure rotationist might contend that the leaders are ripe for a fall, while the laggards are ready to rally. And, we certainly understand that principle. But at the same time we have to ask when is it supposed to happen? This relative performance has been in place for 52 weeks. Why would the 53rd be any different? Granted, we know eventually there will be rotation - we just don't see it happening yet. The grid will let us know when it's starting.
The only notable shift we see worth mentioning is the weakness in the financial. Though trailing most other sectors, these stocks were still generally moving higher...until a couple of months ago. The lows are coming easier, while the highs are challenging to make - so much so that the Dow Jones Financial Index (DJUSFN). Yes, a lot of that can be attributed to the incredible losses taken by the sub-prime lenders. But, it doesn't change the fact that most of the industry's stocks are suffering.
We'll also add that even though this is a worthy form of analysis, it may be better to use it in conjunction with charts, if only to pick and choose the ideal entry and exit spots for any of the sector-based relative strength data.
On a side note, you may have noticed we switched our telecom sector proxy from the AMEX Telecom Index (PHN) to the AMEX North American Telecom Index (XTC). The move may sound incredibly insignificant, but it really isn't - the North American Index version tends to move much more in tandem with the individual stocks we'd consider trading. Plus, it includes a few more names outside of the typical telecom giants.
Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.
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