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Odom & Frey Weekly Futures and Options Views
By Derek Frey | Published  04/16/2007 | Futures , Options | Unrated
Odom & Frey Weekly Futures and Options Views

Financials
Stocks: The stock market continues to be strong and fighting this trend is not paying off at all. For the time being day trading this market is the only way as it allows us to be flexible from day to day.

Bonds: Bonds hit 110 and bounced. Near term we are likely to see this market trade the 110 to 111 range until we get a catalyst that pushes us out of this range. That catalyst could come as early as tomorrow when the CPI report comes out at 8:30 am EST. Look for bonds to continue to trend lower over the longer term.

Energy
The energy complex seems poised to stage a pullback this week. We have seen these markets turn higher recently and we expect more upside in the longer term but near term these markets could continue to correct a bit more before turning back up. Overall we will use this dip to buy long again as the path of least resistance remains up.

Metals
Silver hit our target of 14.00 and is now consolidating those gains. Gold is playing catch up but should test the $700 level this week. While these metals have been strong they are showing signs of being overbought so tighten up your stops and shorts get ready to pounce. Silver could correct back to 13.50 and gold to 660 once the pullback begins. Copper failed to follow through to the upside last week and looks like a good short this week. Sell July copper short at or near 358 with stops at 363 or higher.

Grains
Grains have been all over the place these last few weeks and frankly we see more of the same in the weeks ahead. This spring planting time is critical for the crops. Too much rain or too much sun can hamper planting for the farmers and that will affect the critical yield per acre number later in the season. This week look for beans to continue to trend lower. Wheat will continue to try and stage a recovery but look for that to fail later in the week. Corn may manage to bounce back to 380 but even that is a long shot at this point.

Softs
OJ really broke down last week as I mentioned in a past issue if the support level was taken out. It was and OJ broke all the way below 170. Near term we should see this market stabilize and consolidate its losses. We covered our 190 puts with about a 900% return on them in a little over 30 days. Cocoa continues to drift sideways but as time goes on, we get closer to this market continuing its rally Look for a move above 1950 before going long. Coffee tried to take off last week but looks as if it was a head fake again. Stand aside until we see a close above 115. Sugar also failed to follow through with last week's minor rally. Stand aside sugar until a real trend develops. Cotton cannot get a rally going to save its life. If the current trend continues much longer farmers will be paying us to take the cotton off of their hands. Stay away from the cotton pit unless you are on a tour of the exchange.

Meats
Cattle really corrected last week and this week looks like we will continue that trend. Hogs and bellies on the other hand are strong and could see a retest of the recent highs.

Derek Frey is Head Trader at Odom & Frey Futures & Options.

Risk Disclaimer
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options is not suitable for everyone. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.