Energies
A strong rally in energies came late in the week mainly on technical support and hysteria buying.  Nevertheless the run held up and the market is at the top of my forecasted short term range which suggests a short with stops above 46.50.  Natural gas is ugly, and while I would suspect a bounce is possible, the market is certainly acting like it is ready to tumble. 

Financials
Stock weakness came (as a shock to most) as anticipated to start the new year, a real counter trend given the money available to the market.  If funds are holding cash its probably for the short term to enter at a value, so look for selling pressure for a week or two more, maybe to about 1165 on the S&P and then some serious fund participation bouncing the market for a bit.  Bonds didn't know what to do with today's employment data, but I feel sorry for those caught up in the almost 3 basis point action 1 minute prior and 2 minutes after the announcement.  As far as the US dollar, I am not much for the “I told you so”, but…Ahh who am I kidding I relish the I told you so opportunities.  The intervention is here, and don't think for a second that when Snow says we will do “things” to support the dollar that he means anything other than intervention.  The dollar breakdown is over and you better get on this bandwagon before it's too late.  Short the euro, yen and Canadian on bounces, and buy puts and/or sell calls.

Grains
The grains started off the new year giving bulls a great entry and a gap back through resistance is all we needed to gain some real bull momentum heading into the big grain reports next week.  Calls for beans are still cheap for May and buy corn futures with puts as protection in place of a stop.  Wheat's probably a buy too, but I don't care for the option pricing and the only thing I see is buying a $3 and selling two $3.50 calls for about $500.

Meats
Cattle finally gave into us bears and appears to be back on track for the breakdown I have been waiting for.  Look to sell on bounces.  Hogs and bellies are heading south as well.

Metals
Gold gave up and the dollar reigned supreme as the metals look bleak with an intervention on the way.  Keep in mind you are reading a sell recommendation (and a perfectly timed one if I must say so myself - read “Gold's Next Big Move” from a long term bull.  Gold and silver may toggle up and down but sub $400 gold prices are right around the corner.  Copper breakdown number is in the books, number two is on the way - get short.

Softs
OJ broke the nice trend line it had established and then spent the last two days shaking out all the bulls.  Buy the dip and pick up as much as you can between 74-78 as the 71 price support on the March contract is quite strong and I would bet the farm (yours not mine) that it holds up.  Coffee is buy on its respective dip as well and while a move to test 87.50 is possible and wouldn't kill the bull potential, the gut says support is more like 93-95 and this the time to buy up more.  Cotton broke out and followed through this week ahead of the world Ag numbers next week, and I just don't buy it.  Avoid or short this thing as a move above 49 would seem unlikely on this attempt.  Cocoa is showing weakness and is a value buy around 1450 or even at current prices.  Lumber is a sell with stops around 375.  Sugar just won't breakdown, maybe its time for me to reconsider my position - and that's what every bear is saying and that's exactly when this thing breaks - stick it out as sugar is heading south.

James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.