Energies
Increased volatility in this holiday shortened week gave energies a ride to nowhere as the market is frozen in a range ahead of OPEC and the Iraqi election on the 30th.  Weather has dominated recent trade, with a massive cold front and storm hitting much of the US after a mild winter thus far.  Looking forward I see 50.55 holding as a relative top and the market going and testing 40 over the next six months.  Even with the action expected from the election I suspect energies will stay range bound (wide as the range may be) for some time.  Natural gas is all about the weather so good luck playing the technicals.

Financials
The stock market continued its unexpected January fall as anticipated, but is approaching my projected area of support.  With this week's fakeout rally I would suspect support will come in the lower end of my anticipated range (1150 rather than 1165).  Bonds are truly breaking out to the upside and the FOMC meeting on the 2nd should make efforts to cap the market.  Nevertheless the shorter term maturities a gaining on the 30yr and at this point I would expect the spread to loosen a bit.  The dollar continues to climb and I see a clear test of 8485 in the near future.  I see a great swing trade in the making with a sell at 8470 and a double stop reversal at 8510.  The Canadian looks to be at a premature support level around 81 and I recommend a wait and see with a sell at 8250 offering a great entry if you can get it.

Grains
Grains continued to see selling pressure on bounces and look week as it leaves a seasonally bearish period and enters into a neutral/bullish period.  I recommend selling bean puts and buying calls for May or July as we are near a bottom with timing and exact pricing being a challenge at this point.

Meats
Cattle headed into this afternoon's feed report on the bottom trend line of an uptrending and widening channel.  This is a setup for a short on way or the other.  Sell a break or a bounce on Monday.  Hogs and bellies continue to be bearish.

Metals
Today's rally in metals sets up a great entry into a bear break on its third consecutive bear flag.  Copper is resilient and has the technical makeup of a market ready to explode to the upside, but I can't get the recent memory of two major 10 point gap downs out of my head.  This market should fall like all the metals the first quarter of '05.   

Softs
OJ fell apart on light volume to end the week, as frost concerns and overall buying interest seemed to disappear from the market.  Do not let OJ lull you to sleep as this market is alive and well and heading north of 100.  Coffee offered up a choppy week as we enter into a critical technical period that would need a break to a fresh high soon in order to keep any bullish momentum going.  Cotton continues to fail after setting fresh near term highs and looks like a market having a real hard time rallying.  Fresh lows are expected.  Cocoa is a value buy.  Lumber is still a sell but is a bit out of control so a wait and see might be best.  Sugar just doesn't want to rally so I recommend selling with a double stop reversal at 901.

James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.