Energies
Some balancing in energies this week came on the heels of this weekend's energy volatility extravaganza.  With OPEC not budging on their meeting date and violence heating up ahead of the election, Monday should be a day to remember in the energy complex.  If the election is a non-event option premium should dissipate and my forecast for a wide range bound trade between 50.55 and 40 should hold up after the initial hysteria dies down.

Financials
Stocks failed to find true support this week, and after a week ago's gap down we should see a move to 1150 or 1145 before buying comes in.  I am seeing a big increase in the doomsday bears ever since the head and shoulders top formed and January started out ugly.  I am a bear but that's a little much for me - look for choppy action for the next several months.  This is a tough market for option players because I just don't see the big break around the corner - in either direction.  Bonds destroyed a couple of days of solid selling with a big bounce day on not so impressive GDP numbers this morning.  Next week is such a blockbuster, with the FOMC, OPEC, Iraq elections and the employment report as the capper that I am just ignoring any technical setup and looking at next week to be extremely volatile and ultimately set the real trend for the first half of '05.  The dollar is approaching serious resistance below 8485 and I am bull with a reversal sell at 8470 and a double reversal buy back at 8510.  The Canadian needs to break 80 soon to keep the bear momentum - not sure its worth being a bear anymore though, with likely support in the 78 area. 

Grains
Grains feel like a faucet with a constant drip, annoying but lulling you to sleep at the same time.  Tough to call the bottom, but value is value, and the lower it goes the better the deal.  Bear put credit spreads in beans is recommended, and buying corn with puts for May or June in place of stops is a cheap play.

Meats
Cattle bounced on trend line support and looks to want to fill the uptrending channel back up to the 92 area.  The gut says it stalls early and breaks the pattern some time in the next two weeks.  Still a hog and belly bear.

Metals
Choppy action persisted in the metals complex this week, as the dollar tries to find its groove and the metals market tries not to get ahead of itself…again.  I remain a dollar bull and gold, silver and copper bear with next week as a good tell all week to the potential downside in the metals moving forward.  Copper has the look of a developing head and shoulders on a daily and with its ability to fall apart on a moment's notice I would not wait to develop some put plays or short futures with stops above 146.

Softs
OJ calmly found support this week and should get a spike up next week if its worth it weight in gold.  Coffee showed a great end of week rally with a gap filling reversal on the close today.  It needs a head of steam to break to new highs and keep momentum and today was just that.  Get long.  Cocoa spiked and is still a buy with 1640 as a target.  Cotton broke down as anticipated and should be at fresh lows in no time.  Sugar broke major resistance at 900 but went so far through it brought the wrong mix of sellers in and this thing might just head south.  Get out of the way if your long and jump on board if your short if this thing gets below 900.  Actually, all biases thrown out the window I would recommend a buy here and a double stop reversal at 898.  Lumber is making me look like an amateur so its time to stand aside for a bit, even though the gut says these limit moves look more like a setup for an island key reversal than a genuine rally to me.

James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.