Energies
A solid bout of choppiness has hit this market complex hard, and Iraq elections and OPEC indecision did not do much to change the pulse.  Expect continued trading range action for the next month plus as 50.50 and $40 should hold, despite threats of mid-meeting production cuts by OPEC.  Selling option premium in OTM calls on bounces is still recommended, but with 30 day or less time frames.

Financials
Stocks bounced a little higher than anticipated and end the week breaking into critical resistance at the previous back to back highs at 1197 and change on the S&P.  look for some follow through but overall I see this as a fake out - the bull run is over for the first half of '05.  Bonds screamed to fresh highs on today's poor employment data and hourly earnings numbers.  Technically, bulls would have liked to see some real push to newer highs after the first push this morning, but it failed to do so and failed to close above 116 on the 30yr.  Monday is critical, with a fresh high absolutely necessary for the bulls to stay in control, otherwise take this as a great price to be short from.  The dollar gained some momentum as an intraday reversal got this market in a bull mode to test 8485 next week.  The gut says it will take several attempts to break 85 and therefore a short play at 8470 and a double stop reversal at 8510 is highly recommended.  Over anxious traders may see 8450 as a more realistic entry.  The yen and euro both are looking ready to tumble, but don't get fooled because it should take some time before these market completely fall apart.  The Canadian look set for a run to 78.

Grains
Grains continued to fall apart this week and look ugly.  I remain a value buyer across the board - with some patience.

Meats
Strength in cattle this week came on the heels of rising cash basis and overall market trend line support and technical bullishness.  I am a big bear - get short long term and mortgage the farm.  Bellies and hogs remain good shorts.

Metals
Gold broke down through its third consecutive bear flag and should hit 410 if the dollar gets to 8470.  Short term the 410 area would be a good place to buy it but overall I am an intermediate term bear so pulling shorts there is probably the better recommendation.  Silver should follow suit and copper looks like that head and shoulders formation should push that down aggressively.

Softs
Coffee surged today on technical buying as the new highs brought aggressive short covering.  The story is the growing concern over a possible global producer squeeze that may be partially in play.  Plus the improvement in the Brazilian Real makes this a bull market if I ever saw one - jump on this bandwagon before it passes you by.  OJ is showing strong support and could get a big price spike in the coming weeks.  Volatility congestion, or better yet - market nervousness, is building here and the best bet is a call buying frenzy or even strangles at these cheap option prices.  Cocoa was all over the map this week and a break back above 1600 might mean a major rally is under way.  Cotton broke down again and looks prime to fail to new lows.  Lumber is out of control and my stand aside at this point is giving me an itchy trigger finger to buy puts for May.  Sugar needs to break to fresh highs before I get involved, and until then it's a short play.

James Mound, owner of JMTG Brokerage LLC, MoundReport.com and author of the book 7 Secrets, writes the Weekend Commodities Review Newsletter. Receive your free weekly subscription to the Weekend Review by e-mail. Click here.