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Sector Spotlight on Water
By Price Headley | Published  05/31/2007 | Stocks | Unrated
Sector Spotlight on Water

What a difference a day makes, huh? At the end of Tuesday, things looked mildly bullish across the board, and we were wondering if we would be able to distinguish any sectors or industries from the broad market. And then, China managed to sneak back into the picture overnight, bringing memories of February 27 with it. So today, we see a landscape that's fairly different than yesterday's. In light of the shake-up, these are the trends we see that seem to be relatively unrelated to the market's possibly-temporary reversal of fortune.

Bearish: Dow Jones Full Line Insurance (DJUSIF)

The major insurers were already headed for trouble before today's help. Eight of the prior eleven days were bearish, and we've seen a pretty steady chain of lower lows and lower highs during that time. The volume behind the redirect matched the volume of the April upturn, so we're not taking it lightly. As of right now, we also have a cross under the 20-day average line (blue) And where might all this be going? If we had to guess (and we do), we anticipate a move back to the 200-day average (green), currently at 459. That's what happened the last time the index got a little over-extended in December - it spent all of Q1 retracing a big piece of last year's gains. Let's establish a stop on this bearish bias at 492.

Dow Jones Full Line Insurance (DJUSIF) - Daily


Bullish: Dow Jones Water Index (DJUSWU)

Like the insurers were independently bearish, the water stocks seem to be independently bullish; they're even up Wednesday. But to really understand the scope of what could be here, only a weekly chart does the trend justice. After hotting bottom in June of last year, the Dow Jones Water Index has been on the mend. As a result, a long-term support line has been established (blue). Our interest was peaked again, though, when we finally started to see the 50-day line (purple) act as support, we were already above it as well as above the 200-day line. On top of that, the volume has been bullish overall, even if the chart has seen a lot of erratic swings in the short run.

Dow Jones Water Index (DJUSWU) - Daily


On the Bubble: Dow Jones Utility Average (UTIL)

We're not quite sure what to make of this sector. It was on fire a few weeks ago, as one of the rally's key leaders. Then last week, it got sour very quickly. The dip carried the chart back to its 50-day average, where it now seems a little confused about what to do next. This chart - for lack of a better way of saying it - is vulnerable. The next likely support level is the 200-day line (green), but it's 8% under the current trading level of 514.48. The red flag is the heavy volume that came with this dip. The 50-day line is still acting as support to some degree, so it's a bit soon to make this call. But, this is definitely a chart we're going to be watching in the near-term.

Dow Jones Utility Average (UTIL) - Daily


Price Headley is the founder and chief analyst of BigTrends.com.