EUR/CAD
Commentary – The EUR/CAD downtrend continues. Looking back 10 years, daily RSI is at its lowest level (12). A pullback is certainly due but the trend is obviously down and the next month or two will likely see a test on the long term support line drawn off of the October 2000, July 2001 and March 2006 lows near 1.3709. Resistance on a pullback is at the 5/29 high at 1.4630.

Strategy – None

EUR/AUD
Commentary – We wrote last week that “we are looking to get bearish near this level for the next leg down (likely next week).” However, we were wrong that the pair would work higher “towards the confluence of the 50% of 1.7043-1.6193 / level where a = c at 1.6610/17.” The EUR/AUD broke below the 4/17 low (1.6196) today, signaling that the bear trend has resumed. The next bearish target is where the decline from 1.6593 (top of wave 3) would equal wave 1 (1.7041-1.6196) at 1.5747.

Strategy – Bearish now, against 1.6482, targeting 1.5747

EUR/NZD
Commentary – The decline below the 4/18 low (1.8128) today signals the resumption of the downtrend in the EURNZD. The wave structure is clear and the pair is in the 3rd of the 3rd wave, which is often powerful. The next short term bearish target is where wave 3 of 3 (beginning at 1.8582) would equal wave 1 of 3 (1.9497-1.8128) at 1.7211. There is additional bearish potential longer term.

Strategy – Bearish now, against 1.8582, targeting 1.7211

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.