Odom & Frey Weekly Futures and Options Views |
By Derek Frey |
Published
06/5/2007
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Stocks
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Unrated
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Odom & Frey Weekly Futures and Options Views
Financials Stocks: Stocks continue to push to new highs. We still target 14,000 on the Dow and 1600 on the S&P 500. At the same time we continue to watch for signs of the coming correction. We expect at least a 5-10% correction at some point this summer. Look for volume spikes to coincide with new highs on the indices to signal a possible top.
Bonds: Bonds are now consolidating around the 109 handle and for now we expect that to continue. We have the next FOMC meeting at the end of this month and Bonds are likely to be range bound until that meeting.
Energy Crude did support out above 62 as we expected and is now pushing back towards upside resistance at 67.50. We expect this market to finally push back through that resistance point and expect to test $70 this month. Heating also held the support level at 185 we mentioned last week. We will see this market trading above 200 again later this week. Natural gas is also testing the upper boundaries of its range at 8.25 we see this market also pushing through this level on its way to 9.00 later next week.
Metals Gold has staged a solid bounce even with the Dollar still near recent highs. We remain unconvinced of this rally. We still see a test of the 650 level in gold in the near term. Silver also has had a solid bounce carrying the market back up to 13.75. Look for this bounce to stall this week and the market to drift back down to 13.00. Copper continues to build a bear flag that should push this market back down to 320 before July 4th.
Grains Wheat has pushed through 5.00 already and is testing resistance at 530 as I write this. We see wheat moving up sharply this summer and expect the price to rally to at least 6.00 by summers end. Soybeans have completed the bull flag pattern I mentioned last week and should now push up to 8.50 this week. Corn is still range bound between 4.00 and 3.50 and we expect this to continue for some time.
Softs OJ did push below 150 as I mentioned last week and we have now covered our shorts and or sold our puts. Look for long call trades this week. Cocoa is struggling with resistance at 2000 and for now looks to continue to consolidate between 1850 and 2000. The bull flag in coffee I mentioned last week also proved to be a great signal as coffee took off late last week. We are now targeting a move to 125 by months end. Sugar failed to follow through and is still trying to find a bottom. Buying long term calls on the dips is still the best way to position for the next 8-10 months. Cotton is still trying to trend up but need to hold trend line support below Monday's lows. If that holds, consider buying or spreading calls.
Meats Live cattle failed to fall through 90 but came very close and we are still targeting a move below 90 this week. Feeder tested 110 support and bounced but we see this as a dead cat bounce and are still targeting a move to 107.50. Hogs continue to drift sideways but we are still expecting an upside break out this week. Pork bellies continued to sell off and look like they are in an aggressive sell off mode that could push this market all the way down to 92.50.
Derek Frey is Head Trader at Odom & Frey Futures & Options.
Risk Disclaimer Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options is not suitable for everyone. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
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