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The Fantasy of Buying Financial Assets
By Bill Bonner | Published  06/6/2007 | Stocks | Unrated
The Fantasy of Buying Financial Assets

This morning…our fingers froze at the keyboard. We were suddenly struck by an irony so immense we could scarcely breathe, let alone type. Or else it was a hangover. We had to loosen our collar…sit back…and relax for a minute.

The world seems to be in the grip of three immense frenzies at once, we realized. Each one is breathtaking. Each one is awe-inspiring. And each one is a monumental humbug. Each part of this hysterical trinity has tres partes of its own - in other words…one part truth…one part lie…and one part complete absurdity. And each one supports the other, reinforcing one delusion with another, even bigger one.

In the New World, a recent poll showed that Americans thought the war on terror was the single most important issue on the planet. While back in the Old World, a similar question drew a different reply: It is global warming that the Europeans worry about. Meanwhile, all over the world, from Manchester to Mandalay, everyone believes he can get rich without working; all he has to do is to buy a financial asset and watch it go up in price.

It is this last fantasy that interests us most, here at the Daily Reckoning headquarters. Every sentient being on earth seems to have come to believe that it is money that matters most…and the way to get money is to speculate. Asset prices only go up, he believes. And each one believes he has some special gift that permits him to choose the one that goes up most. Seeing neither error nor risk in this proposition, he then proceeds to leverage himself - borrowing money either for consumption (Americans) or speculation (Chinese) so that he can take advantage of it.

What results is a huge splurge of spending - on consumption in North America…and capital investment in Asia. This frenzy of activity, of course, brings about a huge increase in the consumption of resources - notably oil.

The biggest single user of oil in the world is the Pentagon, whose newfound mission is to maintain order throughout the planet so the oil continues to flow. Every army since 1914 has two major objectives: to protect the homeland…and to preserve its access to the number one military supply - oil.

Meanwhile, a hypothesis has conveniently arisen: Increased usage of fossil fuels raises the worlds CO2 levels…trapping heat. The authorities, naturally, rush to 'save the planet,' conveniently alarmed by the plight of polar bears and penguins. How can they help? They can raise taxes! Yes, global warming is to be remedied by a global tax on fuel, so as to raise prices and discourage users. Who will collect and redistribute the tax? If you guessed the Girl Scouts or the Kiwanis Clubs you are a naïve moron. The tax will be collected by governments, the largest of which is also the largest user of fossil fuel…and the greatest contributor to the alleged danger.

But we will leave that insight to simmer on your stove, dear reader, and return to the worldwide financial bubble.

A number of analysts whom we admire and respect - Jeremy Grantham and Richard Russell, for example - have come to believe that we are on the threshold of an even greater bull market.

We have noticed how one bubble has led to another…in stocks…in real estate…in art…in watches and collectibles…in one market…then in another…until the whole financial world is expanding at an alarming rate. We read in the paper, just yesterday, that the celebrated art promoter Damien Hirst has created a diamond-encrusted skull now apparently offered for sale at $100 million. Pity the poor dope who buys it! But what do we know; it will probably go up! And now you can buy stocks in China for 40 times earnings…and houses priced over $100 million too.

We have noticed also how reckless spending, borrowing and money printing in the United States now leads to reckless investing, borrowing and money printing in other countries, as each central bank tries to keep its own currency from going down faster than the dollar…and how the financial industry has invented new ways to increase liquidity and leverage, effectively reducing central bankers' control over the marketplace.

And now it seems that the whole world is enjoying a Super Bubble…unlike anything ever seen before. It really is a New Era, in other words. How big will it get? How long will it last? We wish we could tell you…

Everyday is a new day…and every day is just like the one before. Every market is completely new…and not so different from ones that came before. Every generation prepares the way for the next one.

*** The U.S. economy is now growing at a rate that is less than the rate of population increase. If it keeps growing at this rate, in other words, we'll all go broke.

Housing corrections take a long time. There are now 700,000 new houses for sale…and more houses for sale, overall, than any time in history. It will take years to work down this inventory, because sellers typically resist price cuts…as long as they possibly can.

Money Magazine has done a series of "Scenes from a Bubble," referring to the housing bubble:

"MONEY has obtained more than 100 emails and faxes sent by loan officers to appraisers across the country. The language varies from asking if a predetermined value was possible to promising more business if a number could be hit.

'"Many homeowners are finding out that the equity they were led to believe they had in their house is not actually there,' says John Taylor, president of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition."

MONEY took an example. Mr. Kim obtained a no-money-down $642,000 mortgage, based on an appraiser's estimate of the value of his house. MONEY's own appraiser judged the place worth only $580,000.

The result: Kim now owes $62,000 more than his house may be worth. How many people are in that situation? We don't know.

How long will it take them to reckon with it? We don't know that either. How did they get in that jam? That, we do know. MONEY continues:

"Wall Street's rocket scientists keep finding more sophisticated ways to repackage and resell mortgages. As a result, lenders stopped worrying so much about credit standards and learned to love risky loans.

"Now a lot of that lending looks foolish. Mortgage delinquencies among so-called subprime borrowers have risen to 13 percent, the highest in at least 10 years. The market for the lowest-credit-quality mortgage bonds has tanked. And investors in CDOs may be in for a rude shock."

Meanwhile, yesterday, yields on the long bond - closely linked to mortgage rates - rose to 5.06%. Not good for the housing market.

Bill Bonner is the President of Agora Publishing. For more on Bill Bonner, visit The Daily Reckoning.